OPINION: This article may contain commentary which reflects the author's opinion.
If the 2024 election were held tomorrow and Donald Trump was the GOP nominee running in a rematch against President Joe Biden, the results would be different, according to a newly released survey.
Shockingly different, to be specific.
Amid terrible approval ratings for Biden and his vice president, Kamala Harris, the survey found:
— Trump is preferred over Biden by a 50-36 percent margin;
— By a nearly 2-1 margin, voters do not even want to see Biden’s name on the ballot in 2024.
“A majority of voters think President Joe Biden shouldn’t seek reelection in 2024, and he would lose a rematch with former President Donald Trump by double-digit margins,” noted an early analysis of the Rasmussen Reports poll sponsored by the Heartland Institute.
“Sixty-one percent (61%) of likely U.S. voters believe Biden should not run for a second term as president in 2024. Only 28% say Biden should seek reelection, while another 11% are not sure. If the next presidential election were held today, and Biden were running against Trump, 50% would vote for Trump while 36% would vote for Biden,” according to the Heartland/Rasmussen survey.
The Washington Examiner adds:
Trump has been coy about his plans, though most former aides expect him to run again. Biden has pledged to run for reelection, especially if Trump makes another try.
Trump is so dominant in GOP presidential polls that even critic and Sen. Mitt Romney this week said that the Republican nomination is the former president’s to lose.
Biden, meanwhile, isn’t dominant, and his base is breaking away and fast. In its analysis, the Heartland Institute said, “While 64% of black voters said they have a favorable opinion of Biden, only 39% want him to run for re-election.” And it added that “among Hispanics, just 43% have a favorable opinion and only 31% want him to run in the 2024 presidential election. Women voters — a key to Biden’s 2020 victory — have soured on the president, with only 26% wanting him to run again.”
The Heartland/Rasmussen survey is just the latest polling disaster for Biden/Harris amid rising inflation that includes higher food, gasoline, and diesel fuel prices as well as a chaotic southwestern border and war in eastern Europe.
“It’s bad,” an anonymous Democratic strategist said in early April after looking at polling data then, according to The Hill. “You have an energy crisis that’s paralyzing and inflation is at a 40-year high and we’re heading into a recession. The problem is simple. The American people have lost confidence in him.”
“Everyone needs to come to terms with the reality that we’re going to get slaughtered in November,” the strategist added. “That’s a fact. His polling has gotten worse, not better. It’s indicative of the fact that people have lost confidence in his leadership. There’s nothing they’re going to be able to do.”
Bill Galston, Chair of the Brookings Institutions governance study program and former domestic policy adviser to former President Bill Clinton, said, “unless and until inflation comes down appreciably, that there’s going to be a ceiling on his job approval that’s a lot lower than the White House wants it to be.”
Gallup senior editor Jeff Jones said, “high gas prices are one of the biggest anchors on presidential approval.”
The Daily Mail continued:
Just 40 percent of respondents to NBC’s new poll say they approve of the president’s White House tenure, the lowest recorded by the outlet’s surveys so far. It fell three points from January.
What could be concerning for Biden’s re-election chances is a decline in approval among female voters, black voters, and Independents — demographics that were all key to his 2020 victory.
Also, voters increasingly don’t even believe Biden will serve out his first term.
In a mid-April poll from I&I/TIPP asked voters: “In your opinion, how likely is it that Joe Biden will complete his first term in office?”
Below are some of the results:
Predictably, most Americans (71%) said Biden was likely to last through his four years. But 21%, or one in five, said it was “not likely” he would last.