OPINION: This article may contain commentary which reflects the author's opinion.
A shocking new poll found that former President Donald Trump has dramatically increased what had been a relatively small lead in national surveys over President Joe Biden.
In a survey by SSRS for CNN, Trump outperformed Biden by a startling 6 points (49–43 percent), well outside the margin of error, with 8% of respondents remaining undecided. Previously, Trump had led Biden by much smaller margins or was virtually tied with him, according to RealClearPolitics’ average of polling.
But all that changed in April — ironically, the same month that Trump’s first criminal trial began in Manhattan on 34 felony counts related to a hush money payment to adult film star Stormy Daniels, who admitted in a 2018 statement in a letter made public that she had not had an affair with the future president.
“And in the coming rematch, opinions about the first term of each man vying for a second four years in the White House now appear to work in Trump’s favor, with most Americans saying that, looking back, Trump’s term as president was a success, while a broad majority says Biden’s has so far been a failure,” the polling firm said in an analysis of its survey data.
“Republicans now are more unified around the idea that Trump’s presidency was a success than Democrats are that Biden’s has been one. Overall, 92% of Republicans call Trump’s time in office a success, while just 73% of Democrats say Biden’s has been a success so far. Among independents, 51% say Trump’s presidency was successful, while only 37% see Biden’s as a success,” the analysis continued.
In a five-way race with independent candidates Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Cornel West, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein, “Trump holds 42% to Biden’s 33%, with Kennedy at 16%, West at 4% and Stein at 3%. Kennedy draws 13% each from supporters of Biden and Trump in the initial two-way matchup,” the CNN poll found.
According to voters, the economy held greater significance “than they were in each of the past two presidential contests,” with 70 percent of all Americans expressing dissatisfaction with current economic conditions in the U.S. Additionally, other major issues varied considerably depending on party affiliation.
The analysis noted further: “Among Democratic-aligned voters, protecting democracy (67%), abortion (54%), the economy (52%), gun policy (51%) and health care (49%) all rank as key for about half or more, while on the GOP-aligned side, it’s the economy (79%), immigration (71%), crime (65%) and then democracy (54%).”
Without a doubt, Trump’s lead has increased as a result of receiving more support from voting blocs that typically lean heavily Democratic. Black voters (particularly black men), Hispanics, and young voters between the ages of 18-29 have been steadily increasing their support for Trump.
A new survey earlier this month found that his polling among the younger voter demographic has fallen to its lowest in recent election cycles for the Democratic candidate.
“The latest Harvard Institute of Politics (IOP) Youth Poll shows Biden at 50% to Trump’s 37% in a head-to-head matchup among 18- to 29-year-olds. In a five-way race with Robert Kennedy Jr., Jill Stein, and Cornel West factored in, Biden’s lead shrinks even more among young voters as he leads Trump by just seven percentage points with 16% of those surveyed saying they were still undecided,” The Daily Wire reported on Thursday.
“In the 2020 election, both Gen Z (ages 18-23) and Millennial (ages 24-39) voters favored Biden by 20 percentage points, according to Pew Research,” the outlet noted further.
Make no mistake—this is a different youth electorate than the ones we saw in 2020 and 2022, and young voters have different motivations.
According to the Harvard poll, the decline in Biden’s support among the youth vote is primarily attributed to young men. While Biden’s lead among young women surveyed has remained relatively unchanged since 2020, his advantage has decreased by nearly 20 percentage points among young men.
IOP Director Setti D. Warren noted that “young people today have clear concerns about where our country is headed.”
“From worries about the economy, foreign policy, immigration, and climate, young people across the country are paying attention and are increasingly prepared to make their voices heard at the ballot box this November,” Warren added.
