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SCOTUS Could Give Republicans Strong Chance To Hold House In 2026

It looks like the U.S. Supreme Court is getting ready to make it harder for federal courts to enforce Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act. This could protect state lawmakers from challenges that mix race and partisanship in redistricting.

Two well-known voting rights groups have warned that getting rid of or limiting Section 2 would let Republican-controlled legislatures redraw up to 19 congressional districts in their favor. This is how important the decision is.

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During an interview on “Fox & Friends,” lawyer Mehek Cooke told host Kevin Corke that she thinks the Supreme Court is giving President Donald Trump a “road map” for how to handle some cases that could have a big effect on his plans.

During the re-arguments in Louisiana v. Callais, a conservative majority showed that they were open to an approach supported by the Trump Justice Department. This could make it harder for plaintiffs to win claims of racial vote dilution in areas where voting patterns closely follow party lines, which is a common feature of modern Southern politics.

The case is about Louisiana’s 2022 congressional map, which a federal district court said was likely to violate Section 2 because it put Black voters, who make up about a third of the state’s population, into just one majority-Black district out of six.

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In response, lawmakers in 2024 came up with a plan to fix the problem by making a second district like this one. But white voters sued, saying that the fix was an unconstitutional racial gerrymander, and a district judge agreed with them.

The case was first argued in March, but it came back after the justices asked for new briefs on the constitutionality of Section 2.

Louisiana changed its mind over the summer and now wants the Court to limit or get rid of race-based districting. The black voters who started the original challenge defended the remedial map, saying it fixes the problem of minority voting power being diluted.

The U.S. Supreme Court is close to making a decision that could get rid of congressional districts based on race.

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— Breaking911 (@Breaking911) December 25, 2025

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Conservative judges were hesitant to throw out Section 2 completely. This law, which was passed in 1965 and strengthened in 1982, makes it illegal to deny minorities equal voting rights.

Instead, they focused on a more specific theory put forth by Principal Deputy Solicitor General Hashim Mooppan, who was speaking for the Trump administration.

Mooppan said that states could defend maps by using legitimate partisan goals, even if those goals are similar to racial demographics. He cited the 2019 Rucho v. Common Cause ruling that said federal courts couldn’t stop partisan gerrymandering.

For example, this would let mapmakers put Republican advantages first without breaking Section 2, as long as the goal isn’t just racial.

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Chief Justice John Roberts, who wrote the 2023 Allen v. Milligan decision that required a second majority-Black district in Alabama, asked if this framework fits with Allen and the Court’s Thornburg v. Gingles test.

For that test, plaintiffs have to show that a minority group is big enough and close enough together, votes as a group, and has candidates who are blocked by majority bloc voting. Roberts seemed determined to make the proposal fit with what had come before, rather than making a big change.

Justice Brett Kavanaugh, who was a key vote in Allen with Roberts and the liberals, asked if Section 2 remedies need a “sunset” clause, using cases that limited race-based policies to temporary fixes as an example.

Justice Samuel Alito talked about “congruence and proportionality” when race and party follow each other, saying he was worried about judges going too far in politically charged cases.

Voting rights groups that back the Democratic Party are getting ready for what they call a possible crisis if the U.S. Supreme Court weakens a key part of the Voting Rights Act. This is one of the most important civil rights laws in the country.

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Two well-known groups that work to protect voting rights said that getting rid of or limiting Section 2 would let Republican-controlled legislatures redraw up to 19 congressional districts in their favor.

POLITICO was the only news outlet to get a copy of a new report from Fair Fight Action and the Black Voters Matter Fund. It says that if Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act is thrown out, it could almost guarantee that Republicans will keep the House of Representatives.

The authors of the paper say that it is still possible to reach a decision before the midterm elections next year, even though it is not likely.

If the legal and political situation stays the same, the groups found 27 congressional seats across the country that could be redrawn to help Republicans.

Nineteen of these changes have to do with the possible loss of Section 2 protections.

This article may contain commentary which reflects the author's opinion.