OPINION: This article may contain commentary which reflects the author's opinion.
With just a week remaining until Election Day, the latest polling from AtlasIntel—the most accurate pollster from the 2020 cycle—indicates a shift in momentum toward former President Donald Trump in critical swing states.
According to the data, Trump is now leading Vice President Kamala Harris in several battlegrounds, disrupting what had been a closely contested race.
The swing state polling also presents a compelling picture of the current landscape. Trump is ahead in six of the seven states surveyed, many of which were crucial to Joe Biden’s 2020 victory.
In Arizona, Trump leads by 3.5 points, reflecting a change in a state that Biden narrowly won previously. In Georgia, another state that turned blue in 2020, Trump is ahead by 3.4 points.
In Pennsylvania—considered one of the most pivotal states—AtlasIntel shows Trump leading by 2.7 points, signaling potential challenges for Harris in a state that Democrats view as vital. The margins are tighter in Michigan and Nevada, where Trump leads by 1.2 and 0.9 points, respectively.
#NEW FINAL electoral map based on AtlasIntel polls – most accurate pollster of the 2020 election
🔴 Trump: 296 🏆
🔵 Harris: 242 pic.twitter.com/PN5q5rHzlO— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) October 29, 2024
In Wisconsin, Trump holds a narrow 0.5-point advantage, suggesting a tight race that could come down to the wire. The only swing state where Harris currently leads is North Carolina, where she is ahead by just 0.5 points, highlighting the overall competitiveness of the race in this historically red-leaning state.
National polling trends present a similarly close picture.
In a two-way matchup, Trump leads Harris by 1.7 points, securing 49.8% support compared to Harris’s 48.1%. The numbers are slightly more favorable for Trump in a full-field scenario, where he holds a 2.5-point lead with 49.5% support.
Harris trails at 47%, while Green Party candidate Jill Stein polls at 0.8% and Libertarian Larry Sharpe attracts 0.2%. For Harris, the challenge lies not only in narrowing Trump’s leads in key states but also in solidifying her base and persuading undecided voters who could ultimately swing the election.
🇺🇲 National Poll oll: @atlas_intel
2-WAY
🟥 Trump: 49.8% (+1.7)
🟦 Harris: 48.1%FULL FIELD
🟥 Trump: 49.5% (+2.5)
🟦 Harris: 47.0%
🟩 Stein: 0.8%
🟪 Oliver: 0.2%#22 (2.7/3.0) | 10/25-29 | 3,032 LV https://t.co/u3lBJKF1c2 pic.twitter.com/NlFQkT4Ky2
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) October 29, 2024
The Senate race in Arizona is heating up, with Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego and Republican Kari Lake engaged in a tight contest.
The latest AtlasIntel poll shows Gallego with a slim 0.5-point lead over Lake, polling at 48.4% compared to Lake’s 47.9%. Other candidates account for 1.2% of the vote. The dynamics of this race have tightened over the past month; Gallego led by 4.1 points on September 27, 3.5 points on October 17, and now just 0.5 points as of October 29.
Trends indicate that Lake has gained significant ground in the final days, making Arizona a key Senate race to watch as control of the chamber remains in play.
📊 AZ SENATE POLL: @atlas_intel
🟦 Gallego: 48.4% (+0.5)
🟥 Lake: 47.9%
🟪 Other: 1.2%
——
Last 3 polls
9/27 – Gallego +4.1
10/17 – Gallego +3.5
10/29 – Gallego +0.5
——
#22 (2.7/3.0) | 10/25-29 | 1,458 LVhttps://t.co/CUKXxsQS21 pic.twitter.com/0bURJOwzQP— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) October 29, 2024
Broader polling trends indicate that Trump has successfully consolidated his base while making inroads with key voter demographics in swing states. In contrast, Harris faces the challenge of re-energizing a Democratic coalition that appears less enthusiastic than in 2020.
Meanwhile, Democrats have attempted to leverage issues like abortion rights and healthcare to mobilize voters, but polling data suggests that economic concerns—particularly inflation and gas prices—may be resonating more with the electorate, benefiting Trump in the final stretch.
In a Sun Belt state that hasn’t gone red since 2004, a huge wave of early Republican voters could make the difference.
According to the Nevada Independent, there are now more Republican Nevadans who have voted early or by mail than Democratic Nevadans.
Veteran reporter Jon Ralston says that even though there were more Democratic ballots sent in overnight from Clark County, which has a lot of people, it wasn’t enough to cut into the GOP’s lead in early voting.
“This has never happened, not even close, in The Reid Machine Era,” Ralston wrote, referencing the late Sen. Harry Reid (D-Nev.).
