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Trio of Dems In Swing States Facing Defeat in November: Polling

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OPINION: This article may contain commentary which reflects the author's opinion.


Republicans who hope to retake control of Congress during the midterms got some encouraging news on Thursday just weeks away from the crucial midterms.

According to new polling from Data for Progress, three swing-state Democrats are in danger of losing their seats.

In Arizona, Trump-backed GOP challenger Blake Masters is gaining on incumbent Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly, the group found. Kelly has a narrow 1-point lead over his rival, 48-47 percent, The Daily Caller reported, citing the survey.

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Meanwhile, in Georgia, the race is a dead heat, with incumbent Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock and GOP challenger and former NFL great Hershel Walker, who was also endorsed by former President Trump, tied at 46 percent.

“In Nevada, Republican Adam Laxalt leads opponent Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto, with 47% of respondents saying they would vote for Laxalt compared to 46% for Cortez Masto, according to the poll,” The Daily Caller noted.

Meanwhile, the races for governor in two of the states show Republicans with bigger advantages, according to Data for Progress polling.

In Arizona, Trump-backed Kari Lake is leading Democratic Secretary of State Katie Hobbs 51-47 percent, while in Georgia, incumbent Republican Gov. Brian Kemp has a 7-point lead over Democratic rival Stacey Abrams, 51-44 percent.

According to a new survey from the Trafalgar Group, which correctly predicted that she would capture the GOP nomination, Lake leads Democratic challenger and current Arizona Secretary of State Katie Hobbs by nearly five points.

The survey polled 1,080 likely 2022 General Election voters from September 14-17 and has a 2.9 percent margin of error, meaning that Lake’s lead is enough to overcome it. Still, there 4.4 percent of respondents said they had yet to make up their minds.

Trafalgar also found Democratic incumbent Sen. Mark Kelly with a slight lead over Trump-backed GOP challenger Blake Masters, 46.6 – 45.4 percent, which is well within the margin of error. In that race, 5.3 percent are undecided, and 2.7 percent said they are voting for Libertarian Marc Victor.

The polling firm explained why their surveys are generally very accurate.

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“We utilize short questionnaires of nine questions or less based on our perceptions about attenuated attention spans and the need to ‘accommodate modern busy lifestyles.’ Our polls last one to three minutes and are designed to quickly get opinions from those who would not typically participate in political polls,” the firm notes.

In 2019, a jury found that Hobbs was part of a group of Democrats who discriminated against Talonya Adams, a black former state Senate staffer who alleged she was fired because of her race and sex.

“It’s because I was African-American that I was dismissed,” Adams said at the time. “I also think it was in retaliation for requesting a raise.”

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The alleged discrimination occurred when Hobbs was serving as state Senate minority leader.

“When it comes to women and women of color in particular, there is an issue there as it relates to Katie Hobbs… To the extent that she believes discrimination does not exist or that she’s not able to see it, I have grave concerns in the role that she currently sits,” Adams noted further, according to 12News.

In the run-up to the election, Lake has blasted Hobbs for refusing to debate her. Campaign officials for Hobbs claim it is because Lake is a “conspiracy theorist” regarding the 2020 election.

Democratic operatives and pollsters have been predicting doom for the party for months.

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In April, amid cratering approval ratings for President Biden and Vice President Harris, along with skyrocketing inflation, an anonymous Democratic strategist said, according to The Hill, that the situation was “bad.”

“You have an energy crisis that’s paralyzing and inflation is at a 40-year high and we’re heading into a recession. The problem is simple. The American people have lost confidence in him,” the strategist said.

“Everyone needs to come to terms with the reality that we’re going to get slaughtered in November,” the strategist reportedly continued. “That’s a fact. His polling has gotten worse, not better. It’s indicative of the fact that people have lost confidence in his leadership. There’s nothing they’re going to be able to do.”

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