Polling hasn’t been the most reliable gauge of election results over the past several cycles, and this year’s midterm polling appears to be producing similar doubts.
One race that seems to change by the poll is the Senate contest in Maine, where Democrat Troy Jackson is challenging incumbent Republican Senator Susan Collins. For weeks polling has shown Collins with an advantage, but a Maine AARP survey released on Friday had Jackson ahead 50 percent to 47 percent.
The survey also finds Collins dominating older swing voters who split their choices across different races.
That split complicates any simple reading of the contest as November approaches.
AARP surveyed 982 likely voters from September 20 through September 22, according to the Bangor Daily News.
The poll’s margin of error was 3.1 percentage points, making Jackson’s narrow lead statistically uncertain.
Only three percent of respondents were undecided, the smallest share in AARP’s seven battleground Senate surveys.
That leaves the race heavily dependent on turnout and whether voters hold their current preferences.
Jackson, a former Maine Senate president from Allagash, has a substantial advantage among younger voters.
He leads Collins by 25 points among voters under 50, according to the survey.
Among voters aged 18 to 34, his lead balloons to 47 points.
Collins, meanwhile, leads voters aged 50 to 64 by 12 points.
Her seven-point lead among voters 65 and older is smaller but could carry added weight on Election Day.
Collins’ seven-point senior advantage was the smallest Republican lead among older voters in those battleground polls.
Maine’s seniors preferred Democrats for Congress by six points, making her Senate support a crossover result.
The survey found 89 percent of seniors rated their motivation to vote at the highest level.
Among the youngest voters, 69 percent gave their motivation that same top rating.
A motivated older electorate could therefore narrow Jackson’s lead if younger supporters participate at lower rates.
Bob Ward, a Republican pollster involved in the AARP surveys, cautioned against assuming younger voters will turn out.
The poll’s most striking detail concerns older voters willing to cross party lines.
Among voters 50 and older who split their choices across Senate, governor, and congressional questions, Collins leads 70 to 17.
Those swing voters made up 20 percent of the survey’s older respondents.
Her 53-point margin with that group was the strongest showing for any Senate candidate across AARP’s seven battleground surveys.
The next closest Republican advantage among comparable swing voters was 33 points in Michigan.
Collins was also the only candidate in that series viewed favorably overall by those older swing voters.
Should ID be required at the polls?
Troy Jackson: “No”
Susan Collins: “Yes. Only Americans should vote in American elections.”
Vote accordingly. https://t.co/1nj4tXBmor
— Dustin Grage (@GrageDustin) October 7, 2026
Her favorable rating with them stood at 59 percent, compared with 32 percent unfavorable.
Jackson’s rating within the same group was 23 percent favorable and 60 percent unfavorable.
Those numbers show why Collins remains competitive despite a difficult political climate for Republicans in Maine.
She also wins support from 11 percent of Democrats, the highest crossover figure for Republicans in the AARP series.
The poll puts Democrats ahead by ten points on the generic congressional ballot in Maine.
Yet Collins runs seven points ahead of her party’s standing on that measure.
That is a significant personal advantage, though it has not erased Jackson’s overall lead.
AARP’s pollsters found Democrats leading or tied in all seven battleground Senate races they examined.
That pattern includes surveys in Republican-leaning Texas and Ohio, underscoring the broader challenge confronting GOP candidates.
President Donald Trump’s approval in the Maine poll was 37 percent, against 61 percent disapproval.
The Bangor Daily News reported that was his weakest showing among the seven states AARP surveyed.
Collins’ statewide image remains a challenge despite her crossover appeal.
Voters rated her 44 percent favorable and 53 percent unfavorable.
Jackson’s favorable and unfavorable ratings were 47 percent and 44 percent, respectively.
The senator has defied polling before, trailing in public surveys in 2020 before winning by nearly nine points, The Bangor Daily News reported.
That history does not predict a repeat, but it explains caution about treating one poll as final.
This article may contain commentary which reflects the author's opinion.
