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Trump-Backed Plan To Avoid Govt Shutdown Advances To House Vote

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OPINION: This article may contain commentary which reflects the author's opinion.


The House Republicans’ plan to stop a partial government shutdown and tighten election security cleared a significant obstacle on Monday night, but its fate in a chamber-wide vote this week is still up in the air.

Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., is trying to approve legislation that combines a House GOP bill requiring proof of citizenship in the voter registration process with a continuing resolution (CR) that would extend federal funding levels for fiscal year 2024 for six months.

The measure, which was packaged with unrelated laws, passed the House Rules Committee late on Monday, 9–4, marking the last stage of legislation before a House floor vote, Fox News noted.

It is anticipated that House members will take a procedural vote on Tuesday to allow for discussion of the bill, with a final passage scheduled for Wednesday.

However, as of Monday night, at least five House Republicans had expressed their public opposition to the bill, so it’s unclear if it will pass a chamber-wide vote.

Republicans and Democrats both concur that a CR is required to prevent a partial government shutdown just weeks before Election Day and to give congressional appropriators additional time to discuss federal budget for fiscal year 2025.

Out of the 12 GOP-led appropriations bills that have been passed thus far, the House has passed four, while the Democratic-led Senate has not.

The goal of the House GOP’s budgetary pressure strategy is to compel Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer, D-N.Y., to allow a vote on the Safeguarding American Voter Eligibility (SAVE) Act, a bill sponsored by former President Trump and written by Representative Chip Roy of Texas.

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However, most Democratic leaders believe that the SAVE Act would never pass. The White House threatened to veto it after House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., described it as “partisan and extreme” in a letter to House Democrats on Monday.

Schumer wrote to colleagues on Sunday, “As I have said before, the only way to get things done is in a bipartisan way. Despite Republican bluster, that is how we’ve handled every funding bill in the past, and this time should be no exception. We will not let poison pills or Republican extremism put funding for critical programs at risk.”

Congress must come up with a plan by September 30th, failing which unnecessary government initiatives may be put on hold and thousands of federal workers may be placed on furlough.

Johnson doesn’t have much leeway in his conference, though.

On the other hand, Democratic defectors might be able to assist the speaker. Earlier this year, five House Democrats dissented from their party in favor of the SAVE Act.

If there is a CR through March, a new Congress and White House under the direction of either President Donald Trump or Vice President Kamala Harris will discuss federal funding.

This comes as a top pollster revealed that Harris’s lead against Trump in the polls is “steadily cutting.”

A recent ActiVote survey, conducted from August 25 to September 2, shows that Harris has a 1.6-point advantage over Trump, with 50.8 percent to his 49.2 percent. This edge is within the poll’s 3.1 percent margin of error.

In the most recent ActiVote poll, which was conducted among 1,000 potential voters between August 15 and 23, she led Trump by five points, but that lead has since shrunk.

“Harris’ poll numbers improved steadily for about three-four weeks after Biden dropped out, followed by a period of two weeks where it hovered around a 5-point lead. In the past five days that 5-point lead has been steadily cut to just under 2 percent,” ActiVote pollster Victor Allis wrote.

Before Harris’s campaign debut, Trump was ahead of Joe Biden both nationally and in each of the seven swing states. But in the days and weeks following Biden’s conclusion of his reelection campaign, surveys indicated that Harris’s candidacy had given the Democratic campaign fresh vitality, surpassing Trump’s advantage nationally and leading in six of the seven swing states.

However, surveys suggest that Harris’ lead is eroding.

For the first time since early August, Trump led Harris in the Electoral College on Friday, according to pollster Nate Silver’s forecast model. Trump had an almost 5-point advantage against Harris (47.3%) according to his estimate, which gave him a 52.4 percent chance of winning the Electoral College.

“Although we wouldn’t advise worrying too much about the difference between a 52/48 race one way versus a 48/52 race the other way—it’s not a big difference—this wasn’t a good day for Kamala Harris in our model, as Donald Trump is the slight favorite for the first time since August 3,” Silver wrote in an update.

Additionally, according to his estimate, the Republicans have gained ground in every swing state this past week—aside from Georgia—by a net of 0.2 to 2.1 points.

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He continued by saying that his model had taken into consideration any inflation in the polls caused by an anticipated surge in support for Harris after the Democratic National Convention.

While the two presidential contenders were deadlocked with Bet365 and Ladbrokes, six bookies, including Sky Bet, Paddy Power, William Hill, 888sport, Betfair, and Unibet, ranked Trump ahead of Harris.

Swing state surveys have also revealed bad news for Harris.

Since the end of July, Harris’ lead in Minnesota has decreased by half, from 10 to 5 points, according to the most recent SurveyUSA and KSTP surveys.

Additionally, Harris’ lead in Michigan has shrunk from 3.3 points on August 21 to 2.4 points, according to FiveThirtyEight’s poll tracker.

According to recent polls, Trump is leading in Pennsylvania as well. The Trafalgar Group survey put the former president two points ahead of the field, while the Emerson College and Wick polls showed a tie between the two candidates among potential voters in the state.

“If she’s only tied in Pennsylvania now, during what should be one of her stronger polling periods, that implies being a slight underdog in November,” Silver wrote in his Silver Bulletin newsletter.

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