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Trump Takes Lead Over Biden In Major Poll For First Time: Report

Photo of Jon Dougherty Jon DoughertyNovember 20, 2023
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OPINION: This article may contain commentary which reflects the author's opinion.

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Former President Donald Trump is now leading President Joe Biden in a major national survey for the first time, another huge signal that the current commander-in-chief is in trouble politically heading into next year’s election.

NBC political correspondent Steve Kornacki reported on Sunday that Trump was leading Biden in the network’s poll by a margin of 46-44 percent, adding that while Biden has long held a “likeability” advantage over Trump, the latest survey shows the two men tied in that category as well.

“The gap is gone. Thirty-six percent positive on both and actually Biden, one point more negative than Trump. That’s been a significant advantage for Biden. Our poll says that advantage, at least for now, may be gone,” Kornacki noted.

In addition, the political correspondent said that, according to the survey, just 40 percent of respondents gave Biden positive job approval, which is also the lowest number in the span of the current president’s term.

And just 30 percent of self-identifying Independents give Biden positive job approval ratings.

“If you take a look here by party, I think it’s significant for two reasons: one, Independents, obviously, more than two to one disapprove. You don’t want to be there as an incumbent president. But I think equally significant, no surprise, 7% of Republicans approve of Joe Biden, job performance, but three times as many Democrats, 21%, that’s more than one in five, say they disapprove. You need much more unified support in your own party if you’re going to have a successful reelection campaign,” Kornacki said.

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While younger voters tend to skew more liberal, the latest NBC poll found that voters ages 18-24 were actually leaning toward Trump, 46-42 percent.

“The youngest voters in the 2020 election were Biden +28,” Kornacki said. “This could be a massive sea change.”

Other recent surveys show Trump moving past Biden in a basket of key swing states.

According to a new PRRI Research/Ipsos survey, Biden edged Trump in a national two-person race, 48–46 percent, with 6 percent saying they did not prefer either candidate, according to Breitbart News last month.

“However, Trump has a clear advantage over Biden in key swing states such as Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, leading Biden by a difference of six points—49 percent to the 80-year-old’s 43 percent,” the outlet added, citing the survey’s results.

Previous surveys have also shown Trump leading Biden in the critical swing states.

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Voters in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin were polled by Bloomberg/Morning Consult, and their results showed that Trump was ahead of Biden by 4 percentage points due to widespread disapproval of the vice president’s handling of the economy.

Trump has a 5-point lead over Biden in Georgia, a 4-point lead over Biden in Arizona, a 2-point lead in Wisconsin, a 1-point lead in Wisconsin, and a 1-point lead in Pennsylvania. According to the survey, Biden is ahead of Trump by three points in Nevada, and the two candidates are neck and neck in Michigan.

In the seven swing states, 49% of voters said Bidenomics was bad for the economy. This is the term the White House has used to describe Vice President Joe Biden’s economic agenda.

In those seven states, 46% of undecided voters think Bidenomics is bad for the economy, while 41% either don’t know enough about it or have no opinion.

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The survey found that 14% of voters who said they would vote for the president in 2020 now say they would vote for Trump, are undecided, or will not vote at all.

Only 9% of Trump voters in 2020 said they would vote for Joe Biden in 2024, while 91% of Trump voters in 2020 said they would vote for Trump again.

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Photo of Jon Dougherty Jon DoughertyNovember 20, 2023