OPINION: This article may contain commentary which reflects the author's opinion.
Former President Donald Trump has a slight lead over President Joe Biden among voters in seven crucial battleground states that will likely decide the 2024 election.
Voters in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin were polled by Bloomberg/Morning Consult, and their results showed that Trump was ahead of Biden by 4 percentage points due to widespread disapproval of the vice president’s handling of the economy.
Trump has a 5-point lead over Biden in Georgia, a 4-point lead over Biden in Arizona, a 2-point lead in Wisconsin, a 1-point lead in Wisconsin, and a 1-point lead in Pennsylvania. According to the survey, Biden is ahead of Trump by three points in Nevada and the two candidates are neck and neck in Michigan.
In the seven swing states, 49% of voters said Bidenomics was bad for the economy. This is the term the White House has used to describe Vice President Joe Biden’s economic agenda.
In those seven states, 46% of undecided voters think Bidenomics is bad for the economy, while 41% either don’t know enough about it or have no opinion.
A survey found that 14% of voters who said they would vote for the president in 2020 now say they would vote for Trump, are undecided, or will not vote at all.
Only 9% of Trump voters in 2020 said they would vote for Joe Biden in 2024, while 91% of Trump voters in 2020 said they would vote for Trump again.
Trump’s team has been quick to point to the latest poll showing the former president ahead in swing states, taking it as evidence of the candidate’s strength in the general election despite claims from some of his rivals that Trump can’t beat Biden.
The Biden campaign was more skeptical, pointing to the midterm and special elections over the past two years in which Democrats performed better than expected as evidence that polls are not always accurate predictors of election outcomes.
“Predictions more than a year out tend to look a little different a year later. Don’t take our word for it: last year, Bloomberg, who published today’s poll, predicted a ‘100%’ likelihood of a recession, only to say days ago that the U.S. economy is strong and “defying the odds,’” Kevin Munoz, a Biden campaign spokesperson, said in a statement. “Or a year out from the 2022 midterms, when they similarly predicted a grim forecast for President Biden.”
Biden is seeking re-election and is almost certainly going to be the Democratic nominee, while Trump is leading the Republican primary field by double digits in virtually every state and national poll in 2024.
Voters have been on Biden’s case for months over his age and his handling of the economy, despite his and White House officials’ claims that things are looking better economically than when he took office due to an increase in both employment and investment in domestic manufacturing.
Trump faces a busy court schedule in the months ahead, as he has been indicted in four different criminal cases this year and is also being sued over his business practices in a civil trial.
In New York, he faces charges of conspiring to pay off witnesses to cover up an affair; in Washington, D.C., and Georgia, he faces charges of trying to overturn the results of the 2020 election; and in Florida, he faces charges of keeping secret documents after leaving the White House.
Trump started his campaign for president with most Republicans on his side. Now, a number of candidates are looking to test his hold on the Republican nominations before the 2024 contests.
But a brand new poll makes it clear that the Republican primary is all but over, as a recent survey found that 61% of Republican primary voters support Trump.