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Trump Takes Edge In Swing State Crucial To Democrats

Photo of Carmine Sabia Carmine SabiaOctober 12, 2024
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OPINION: This article may contain commentary which reflects the author's opinion.

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The Wall Street Journal has some tragic news for Democrats who are dreaming about keeping the White House.

In a new poll released on Friday showed that former President Donald Trump and his opponent, Vice President Kamala Harris, are neck and neck in national polling, but in crucial swings states, including what has become known as “the blue wall” the numbers are a catastrophe for Democrats.

It also included the one Sun Belt stronghold for Democrats, Nevada, which the poll said is slipping away from them.

It showed the former president with a lead of 47 percent to 42 percent, and the other six swing states are, for all intents and purposes, tied.

The vice president holds an edge of one or two points in Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin and Georgia and the former president has a lead of one point in Pennsylvania and North Carolina.

“The poll’s margin of error for each state was plus or minus 5 percentage points. In each of the swing states, 600 registered voters were surveyed between Sept. 28 and Oct. 8, and the poll included third-party candidates in states where they will be on the ballot,” Politico reported.

“Across all the swing-state voters surveyed, Trump leads Harris 46 percent to 45 percent. Ninety-three percent of both Democrats and Republicans polled said they would vote for their party’s nominee. And independent voters were split evenly between the two, with 40 percent for Harris and 39 percent for Trump, further emphasizing the closeness of the race and its partisan divide,” it said.

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Former President Donald Trump has taken the lead in two of the three so-called “Blue Wall” states that Vice President Kamala Harris needs to win November’s presidential race.

Quinnipiac University’s most recent poll shows Trump leading in Michigan 50 to 47 percent and Wisconsin 48 to 46 percent. He has closed the difference in Pennsylvania with Harris, who leads the Keystone State 49 to 46 percent.

Harris was winning the race in Michigan last month, 50 to 45 percent; in Wisconsin, 48 to 47 percent.

Harris had also been ahead in Pennsylvania, with 51 to 45 percent, but Trump has halved that gap in Quinnipiac’s survey.

According to the Real Clear Polling average, which is based on surveys conducted as recently as last month, Trump has a slight lead in Pennsylvania and Michigan, while Harris holds a narrow victory in Wisconsin.

While Harris does best when polled on abortion policy, Trump does best on immigration, the economy, and the Middle East conflict, according to Blue Wall voters.

Polling among probable voters was carried out by Quinnipiac from October 3rd to the 7th.

The margin of error for the sample was +/- 2.6 percentage points for 1,412 Pennsylvania voters, +/- 3.1 percentage points for 1,007 Michigan voters, and +/- 3.0 percentage points for 1,073 Wisconsin voters.

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The polls show that Trump is faring much better against Harris than he did with Hillary Clinton, the Democratic candidate for president in 2016.

Clinton had a 3.4% lead in Michigan according to the Real Clear Politics average of surveys, but Trump ultimately won the state by a narrow margin of 0.3%.

Clinton was up in Wisconsin by 6.5% in the polls, yet she lost the state to Trump by 0.7%.

Even though the Democrat’s lead was a weaker 1.9 percent in Pennsylvania, Trump still managed to win by a narrow 0.7% margin.

Real Clear Polling averages show that outside of the Blue Wall, the Republican nominee has a lead in Georgia, North Carolina, and Arizona, all of which are close races, but Harris has the upper hand in Nevada.

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Photo of Carmine Sabia Carmine SabiaOctober 12, 2024