OPINION: This article may contain commentary which reflects the author's opinion.
It’s likely that voters will have to choose between former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden again in the 2024 presidential election.
In the 2024 election, many analysts have predicted that Biden will be the Democratic Party’s nominee. Now that Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has announced he will not be a Democratic candidate but instead an Independent, Joe Biden may extend his lead in the party.
However, Kennedy’s decision to run as a third-party candidate in the 2024 presidential election could end up hurting both Biden and Trump.
The general election would pit Biden against Trump if the Democrats’ nomination went to him. Recent polls show that Trump has a commanding lead over his fellow Republicans, including a 49-point margin over Florida Governor Ron DeSantis.
Voters were asked their preferences in the weekly Morning Consult poll between Trump and Biden and Biden and DeSantis.
This week’s poll found that, once again, Biden and Trump are tied as the two most likely candidates for the 2024 election, with 43% of the vote each. One in ten said they would vote for an alternative candidate, and another five percent said they weren’t sure.
Trump made up ground here after trailing Biden by four points in the previous survey.
Biden defeated DeSantis 43% to 38% in a hypothetical matchup. Twelve percent said they would vote for an alternative candidate, and seven percent said they were undecided.
Biden’s lead over DeSantis increased to five points in the most recent poll after hovering around three points for several weeks.
This is in stark contrast to the previous president, who has held a lead of two percentage points or less in most weekly polls since they began in December. A weekly poll conducted seven weeks ago showed that Biden had a three-point lead over Trump, one of his largest advantages in recent months.
A new analysis of 2020 Census Bureau data is better news for Trump than it is for Biden, should the two face off against each other again next year.
The Electoral College map is looking better for Republicans, generally, as “red states such as Florida and Texas picked up Electoral College votes, while blue states such as California, New York, and Illinois lost them,” The Western Journal reported.
According to Ballotpedia, 13 states lost and gained electoral votes following the last census. Texas, for instance, gained an additional two congressional districts and electoral college votes. Colorado, Florida, Montana, North Carolina, and Oregon each picked up one as well; three of those—Florida, Montana, and North Carolina—trend red or are genuinely red.
At the same time, California, Illinois, Michigan, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia each lost one. Of those, California, Illinois, Michigan, and New York are blue or trend blue, while Pennsylvania is leaning that way. Ohio and West Virginia are reliably red.
“Biden won the 2020 race 306-232 in the Electoral College. However, with the new electoral vote breakdown in place, Biden’s win in 2020 would have dipped slightly to 303-235, according to the site 270 to Win,” The Western Journal noted, adding:
Those three votes could make the difference in 2024, based on the results of a Bloomberg News/Morning Consult survey published Thursday.
The poll showed Trump ahead of Biden in Arizona (47 to 43 percent), Georgia (48 to 43 percent), Wisconsin (46 to 44 percent), and Pennsylvania (46 to 45 percent) in a head-to-head matchup for the White House.
The 45th president also leads Biden in North Carolina (47 to 43 percent), which Trump won by 1.3 percent in 2020.
Late last month, a leading pollster some consider the top in the nation predicted a potential “electoral landslide” for Trump next year as Biden continues to slide in approval ratings and “Bidenomics” continues to eat into ordinary Americans’ paychecks.
In an interview with radio host Michael Patrick Leahy for The Tennessee Star, pollster John McLaughlin discussed what current state and national polling means, what polls to watch, and how to analyze new polling as it comes out in the months ahead.
Leahy added that the more legal trouble Trump faces, the more his polling numbers rise.
“We see, apparently, that every time the Department of Justice or a state left-wing district attorney indicts Donald Trump, his poll numbers go up,” Leahy began. “I’m looking at the Morning Consult poll today. Just came out: Trump 61; DeSantis 13; Haley 7; Ramaswamy 7; Pence 5; Christie 3; Scott 1; Burgum 1. Trump by 48 points.
“Morning Consult has Trump and Biden tied, but I’ve seen Trump up 9 in the Washington Post poll and Trump up 3 in another. The polls say it’s looking good for Donald J. Trump,” he said.
