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Trump Has Double-Digit Lead Over Biden In State Dems Are Targeting: Survey

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OPINION: This article may contain commentary which reflects the author's opinion.


Former President Donald Trump’s campaign got some more good news this week in the form of a new poll that shows him holding a double-digit lead over President Joe Biden in a state that Democrats are trying desperately to flip.

In 2020, Trump defeated Biden in Texas by about 5.5 points, the narrowest victory margin for a Republican presidential candidate in a deeply red state in almost 25 years. But according to a Marist College survey released on Tuesday, among registered voters, the former president leads his successor by 11 points (55%–44%).

That said, Trump’s advantage among those who say they will definitely cast a ballot in the November election drops to 7 points (53%–46%).

“Independents, who Biden carried by 6 percentage points in 2020, now break for Trump. Trump receives 56% of Texas independents to 41% for Biden,” the release from Marist notes.

The same poll found that Republican Sen. Ted Cruz is currently leading his Democratic opponent, Rep. Colin Allred, by six points in a crucial Senate contest in which Democrats are investing a lot of resources. The race is important as the GOP hopes to regain the majority in the chamber in the upcoming November elections. Cruz, a conservative firebrand seeking a third six-year term in the Senate, leads Allred 51% to 45% of registered voters.

Allred is a three-term congressman from a suburban Dallas district and a former NFL player. Among likely voters, Cruz leads Allred by about the same margin.

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“Among independents, Cruz (50%) is up by eight percentage points against Allred (42%),” a release from Marist spotlights. “There is a wide gender gap. Cruz (59%) carries men by 21 percentage points over Allred (38%). Allred (52%) tops Cruz (44%) among women.”

Allred is not well known, even though the contentious Cruz has a 45%–43% favorable/unfavorable rating in the most recent poll. Of those surveyed, 53% claimed not to have heard of Allred at all or that they didn’t know enough about him to respond to the question.

Polling has not been good for Biden this month.

In a separate USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll, Trump defeated Biden 40% to 38%, drawing a near-tie in a volatile electorate as the candidates get underway.

A sizable portion of voters were dissatisfied with their options and receptive to being convinced, according to the first USA TODAY survey conducted since the two candidates secured their presidential nominations.

“Nearly eight months out, the election is not set yet. One in four of those surveyed said they might change their minds before November. That unsettled sentiment was bipartisan, including 14% of Biden voters and 15% of Trump voters,” USA Today reported.

The outlet added: “Most of those now backing a third-party candidate said they were open to changing their minds, among them 75% of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. supporters and 94% of Jill Stein supporters. That signals the potential erosion that independent candidates often see as Election Day nears. It also provides a big opportunity for each major-party candidate to make his case to voters who are now reluctant to support him and to convince those voters that it would be dangerous or unwise to back the other guy.”

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Concerns about immigration (24%) and challenges to democracy (23%) trailed closely behind voters’ rankings of inflation and the economy, which accounted for 29% of their vote.

Abortion was the only other topic to reach double digits, coming in at 10%.

Trump is also making a play for traditionally deep blue enclaves like New York.

Several observers responded to a CNN report posted on social media covering Trump’s Bronx rally on Friday by saying the correspondent appeared to have a pained expression when noting the size of the crowd.

The clip posted online featured host Anderson Cooper talking to national correspondent Kristen Holmes as he asked her about the “kind of response” Trump received.

Her response likely isn’t something that President Joe Biden’s campaign nor that of members of his party wanted to hear.

“Certainly a bigger crowd than Democrats would like to see,” Holmes said. “This is one of the bluest counties in the entire country. Trump’s campaign plans to ‘micro-target’ urban voters. The former president’s Bronx rally was filled with, well, Bronx voters.

“I’ve gone to a lot of these rallies across the country, and there are often people who travel hundreds of miles to see Donald Trump and they’re not necessarily part of the community. However, one of the things that I found was that there are a lot of people here who are actually from the Bronx,” she continued.

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