OPINION: This article may contain commentary which reflects the author's opinion.
Former President Donald Trump is holding onto his national lead despite a surge in Democratic enthusiasm following Vice President Kamala Harris’s entry into the race.
According to the latest New York Times/Siena poll released on Sunday, Trump has the support of 48% of likely voters, while Harris has 47%. These numbers are nearly identical to those from the previous New York Times/Siena poll conducted after President Biden withdrew from the race in late July, which also showed Trump leading by 48-47, Fox News reported.
The poll follows weeks of heightened enthusiasm for the Democratic ticket after Kamala Harris replaced Joe Biden. Despite these changes, the New York Times noted that Trump’s support remains “remarkably resilient” amid the shifting election landscape.
The poll reveals that Harris has not yet convinced voters of her vision for the country, with 28% of respondents feeling they need more information about her before offering their support. In contrast, only 9% of respondents expressed similar concerns about Trump.
“I don’t know what Kamala’s plans are,” said Dawn Conley, a 48-year-old small-business owner in Knoxville, Tenn., who is leaning toward Trump, told the Times.
The poll also indicates that although Kamala Harris has made some progress with key demographics within the Democratic coalition following Biden’s exit, she is still underperforming in traditionally strong Democratic groups such as women and Latino voters.
Additionally, Harris faces a challenge with voters’ desire for change: 60% expressed a preference for a significant shift from Biden’s policies. Only 25% of respondents believe Harris would provide that change, while 53% feel that Trump would, the Times survey found.
Trump is also making inroads with traditional Democrat voting blocs. According to new polling from NPR/PBS News/Marist, Trump has surpassed Harris by three points among independents in a multi-candidate race, 49% to 46%.
This represents a considerable increase since August, when Trump trailed Harris, 59, by 11 points, 48% to 37%. Trump has gained roughly 14 points among independents and 19 points among Latino voters, the survey found.
In Wisconsin, meanwhile, one of the most important swing states in the coming election, a new survey from Emerson College and The Hill has shocking results that could be bad for Democrats.
Trump has just a little more than half of the vote, with 50 percent compared to Harris’s 49 percent. And while some might not think a 1% difference is a big deal, Democrats are worried about the trend.
In the same poll taken before the Democratic National Convention (DNC), Harris was ahead of Trump by 1 percent. That’s a 2 percent drop for her, which turns the state in Trump’s favor. In Wisconsin, where races are very close, even the smallest change can have huge effects.
The historical accuracy of Emerson College’s polling adds to the concern. In 2020, their final poll indicated Joe Biden was leading by 8 percent, but the actual results revealed a much tighter race.
A series of new polls indicate that the ‘surge’ Harris received after President Joe Biden dropped his re-election bid last month is also ending.
According to a recent poll by the Napolitan Institute, Trump is once again leading, similar to the lead he held over Biden before the Democrats redirected their support to Harris.
“In the race for the White House, Donald Trump leads Kamala Harris 46% to 45%. When leaners are included, the Napolitan News survey of 3,000 Likely Voters shows Trump ahead 49% to 47%. A week ago, the candidates were tied at 49% among Likely Voters,” the polling organization noted in a report on its findings.
“These numbers suggest that the initial Harris bounce is over. However, the core dynamics of the race remain unchanged. Love him or hate him, voters know what they think of Donald Trump. At this point, Kamala Harris remains largely unknown. That means events like the upcoming Democratic convention and presidential debates could have a bigger impact than usual.”