OPINION: This article may contain commentary which reflects the author's opinion.
Former President Donald Trump is leading Vice President Kamala Harris by three percentage points in a recent national head-to-head survey conducted by Rasmussen Reports.
“Trump came out ahead 49% to 46%. That amounts to a slight gain for Harris, who was lagging behind Trump 45% to 49% in Rasmussen’s poll last week. When third-party hopefuls were added to the mix, Trump came out on top again with 47% to Harris’ 45%, followed by independent contender Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 4%, and all others at 1% or less, per Rasmussen,” the New York Post reported.
“Rasmussen’s findings are an outlier among recent national polling. The conservative-leaning firm has often been at odds with other top pollsters. In 2016, it was among the closest firms to the final result. Harris is averaging a two-point lead over Trump in the latest RealClearPolitics aggregate of a national five-way race. In a two-way race, her lead slips to 1.5 percentage points,” the Post added.
The race for battleground state polling has also become much more competitive, with several firms obtaining varying results in the major races.
Harris is still behind Trump, though.
Trump is predicted to receive 287 Electoral College votes to Harris’ 251 in the battleground state estimate by RealClearPolitics, taking all of the big swing states with the exception of Wisconsin.
Lately, polling has been good for Trump.
Trump appears to have retaken his lead in polling after an initial surge in support for Vice President Kamala Harris following President Joe Biden’s decision to end his reelection campaign in July.
Harris has enjoyed a solid month of favorable reporting in most mainstream media outlets — all of which lean to the left on their editorial pages — while Trump’s coverage has been proportionally negative. According to Axios, previous polling by the Cook Political Report published last week showed Harris leading Trump in Arizona, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Similarly, a New York Times/Siena College poll released last week found Harris with a narrow lead in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.
However, a more recent survey by Navigator Research, published Tuesday, indicates that the race is essentially tied in Arizona, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Individually, Trump leads Harris by one percentage point in Arizona (46% to 45%) and by two points in Pennsylvania (46% to 44%), while the other three states are in a dead heat.
The Navigator survey is consistent with the RealClearPolitics Polling average of battleground states, which also includes Nevada and Georgia.
The vice president is performing better in the battleground states than Biden did before he exited the race last month. Prior to Biden’s departure on July 21, Trump had held a lead of over 4 percent across the seven states in the RCP average, with his advantage widening as the announcement approached.
A co-founder of a major super PAC supporting Harris turned heads on Monday after suggesting that her polling numbers are being overstated.
Reuters reported that Chauncey McLean, president of Future Forward, a super PAC that has raised hundreds of millions to support Harris this election cycle, spoke on Monday at an event in Chicago associated with the Democratic National Convention.
“Our numbers are much less rosy than what you’re seeing in the public,” said McLean, who rarely speaks in public.
According to McLean, Kamala Harris gained a lot of support from young voters of color after Biden withdrew, which has revived Democratic prospects in Sunbelt states like Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina—states that Democrats had largely dismissed in the final days of Biden’s campaign.
“She has multiple paths,” with seven states in play, he said, according to Reuters. He added that voters want more details about her policy positions, according to internal polling. He asserts that voters are not interested in “white papers” or empty platitudes. Instead, they want concrete examples of how Harris might differ from Biden and how she plans to improve their economic situation.
