OPINION: This article may contain commentary which reflects the author's opinion.
Former President Donald Trump received more positive news for his third White House bid on Monday.
A “cookie” poll conducted by a Cincinnati bakery, known for its accurate predictions in every presidential election since 1984, shows Trump with a solid lead over Vice President Kamala Harris.
According to the latest tally from Busken Bakery shared with The Post, Trump received approximately 54% support (2,953 cookies) compared to Harris’ 39% (2,134 cookies). An “independent” smiley-face cookie garnered 7% (397 cookies).
“The cookie poll will remain open until Election Day on Nov. 5, so the tallies reflect the result of ‘early voting’ by those with a sweet tooth,” The Post noted.
“We like to joke and say [customers] can stuff the ballot box,” bakery president and CEO Dan Busken told the outlet.
“Our results, out of our four retail stores, kind of cover the north, south, east and west portions of Cincinnati. So they’re pretty diverse,” Busken told The Post. “It’s definitely interesting that in a state like Ohio and in a city like Cincinnati that there’s been such accuracy in this cookie poll over the years.”
BREAKING: THE COOKIES HAVE SPOKEN—TRUMP LEADS! Trump takes the lead in Cincinnati’s quirky “cookie poll,” which has accurately predicted every election but one since 1984. Trump holds 54% (2,953 cookies), with Harris at 39% (2,134 cookies) and an “independent” smiley-face cookie… pic.twitter.com/YavkYDFMru
— Simon Ateba (@simonateba) October 1, 2024
New polling from swing states with 43 electoral votes up for grabs indicates that momentum is building for Donald Trump.
The Quinnipiac and Emerson surveys released on Tuesday show the former president leading the vice president in North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona, while they are tied in Pennsylvania.
If these numbers hold, Trump would secure 262 electoral votes, making Harris’s path to victory narrow, as it would hinge on winning Michigan and Wisconsin and ultimately pulling off a win in Pennsylvania, the New York Post reported, citing the latest data.
In North Carolina’s Quinnipiac poll, Trump leads Kamala Harris 49% to 47%, with his advantage primarily coming from men and white voters without college degrees. Among these groups, the GOP nominee has 59% and 66% support, respectively.
“Harris leads 56% to 40% with women overall, but Trump has tied her with white women, suggesting the novelty of a historic female presidential candidate of color isn’t resonating with this group,” The Post added.
Harris’s strongest demographic by far is Black voters, where she leads 90% to 2%, a figure that contradicts other surveys showing Trump gaining support among Black men.
Emerson’s poll shows Trump leading Harris 50% to 49% in the state among 850 likely voters surveyed on September 27 and 28. Notably, 9% of those planning to vote for Harris disapprove of the Biden administration’s performance. These results align with other polls from the Tar Heel State.
A Washington Post survey released Tuesday shows Trump leading by 2 points, while an East Carolina University poll released Monday also indicates a 2-point advantage for Trump. The RealClearPolitics polling average shows Trump ahead by less than a percentage point, noted The Post.
In Georgia, Quinnipiac’s poll suggests Trump is on track for a victory that would rectify his narrow and contentious defeat in 2020 to Joe Biden. The former president leads 50% to 44%, with 71% of white voters and 78% of whites without college degrees supporting him.
Additionally, 92% of Trump voters and 91% of Harris voters indicate they won’t change their minds. The Quinnipiac poll in Georgia appears more favorable to the GOP than the RealClearPolitics average survey, which shows Trump ahead by just over a percentage point.
“Among 920 likely Arizona voters polled, Trump leads Harris 50% to 47% according to Emerson, giving him a slightly healthier lead than his 2.1% RCP polling average lead in the state,” The Post continued.
However, Trump doesn’t seem to have enough juice to be helping down-ballot GOP candidates. North Carolina GOP gubernatorial candidate Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson is trailing Democrat Attorney General Josh Stein by substantial amounts in the polls following a report he frequented porn sites and referred to himself as a “black Nazi,” which he has refuted.
And in Arizona, Democratic Rep. Reuben Gallego is leading Republican challenger Kari Lake by double digits as well, while it’s a different story in Pennsylvania. There, Republican Dave McCormick is surging against incumbent Democratic Sen. Bob Casey as the GOP hopes to retake control of the Senate.
“These three states appear to be going Trump’s way, and at least one of the blue-wall states is up for grabs as well, per Emerson and RealClearPennsylvania,” The Post noted.
