New polling from Trump pollster Tony Fabrizio shows Tudor Dixon, the steel executive turned conservative commentator, with an early lead over former Rep. Mike Rogers in the Michigan Republican primary for Senate.
RealClearPolitics reports that neither candidate has officially declared yet, but both are expected to vie for the seat left open by Democratic Sen. Gary Peters, who unexpectedly announced he would not seek reelection in 2026. The key factor in Michigan is Donald Trump.
Last year, Trump carried the swing state, defeating former Vice President Kamala Harris by more than 80,000 votes. Meanwhile, Rogers lost a tight race last November to Democrat Elissa Slotkin. Now, Republicans face the challenge of selecting a new candidate that can credibly vie for the seat that Peters is vacating, RCP noted.
Polls indicate that both Dixon and Rogers are viewed favorably by 57% of GOP primary voters, according to the Fabrizio-Lee polling memo obtained by RealClearPolitics. However, Dixon enjoys a slight edge among very conservative voters, with favorability ratings of 63% compared to Rogers’ 59%, and in a head-to-head contest among staunch Trump supporters, she leads by nine points—43% to 34%.
Both candidates are well known among the base. Rogers served in Congress for over a decade, eventually chairing the influential House Intelligence Committee before retiring in 2015 and joining CNN as a commentator. Dixon, a former executive at Michigan Steel Inc., mounted an unsuccessful 2022 challenge against Michigan Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer with Trump’s endorsement.
Additionally, among voters with firm opinions about both candidates, Dixon is preferred over Rogers by 17 points, with 52% backing her compared to 35% for Rogers, the outlet said.
“While the race between Dixon and Rogers appears close, the base of the GOP electorate’s support for Dixon underscores her advantages in this race,” according to the Fabrizio-Lee memo. “Those furthest to the right and those who are the president’s strongest supporters clearly back Dixon and will be key to winning her the nomination.”
Trump remains undecided, while Republicans see a prime opportunity in Michigan—a state with no clear Democratic frontrunner, RCP reported.
Peters delivered a significant setback to Democratic hopes of regaining control of the Senate when he announced his retirement. Former Biden Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, who relocated his family to Michigan in 2022, was widely viewed as a potential candidate waiting in the wings. However, Politico reported Thursday that Buttigieg plans to pass on the race, keeping the door open for another potential presidential bid.
Dixon has contended that in Michigan, the path to the Senate runs through the MAGA electorate, notes RCP.
“You need a candidate that loves Donald Trump, that is going to bear hug Donald Trump, and that’s been our problem in the past,” she said last month on “The Clay Travis & Buck Sexton Show,” blaming past GOP defeats on Republicans who “try to run parallel to him.”
Axios reported on Wednesday that Rogers hired Chris LaCivita, Trump’s campaign co-manager who remains within the president’s inner circle. This indicates that the Michigan Republican is attempting to solidify his support from the right and align himself with the MAGA movement.
The president, meanwhile, appeared close to endorsing Rogers behind closed doors, telling Senate Republicans at Mar-a-Lago last month that “he might be the one.” But Trump qualified that by saying he was talking “to Michael and some of the others.”
Dixon was a consistent presence for him on the campaign trail, appearing alongside prominent MAGA figures such as Alina Habba, Vivek Ramaswamy, and currently Interior Secretary Doug Burgum. During a rally in Grand Rapids last July, Trump praised Dixon, describing her as “a friend of mine who was really brave and who ran a tough race.”
This article may contain commentary which reflects the author's opinion.
