OPINION: This article may contain commentary which reflects the author's opinion.
Once again, the polling between GOP presidential nominee Donald Trump and his Democratic opponent, Vice President Kamala Harris, appears to show a highly competitive, neck-and-neck race, but a new report that relies more on “old school” analytics indicates that the race may not be nearly as close and much more heavily in Trump’s favor.
Trump currently leads Harris “by 0.3% in the RealClearPolitics average of national polls and by an average of 0.9% in the battleground states,” writes Elizabeth Stauffer for the Washington Examiner. “Both results are well within the margins of error of the individual polls included in the averages. Thus, it’s appropriate to describe the current presidential race as neck and neck. Right?
“If polls are the only indicator you’re looking at, that might be a fair statement. However, there are other ways to gauge where the candidates stand with the electorate,” she noted.
Earlier this week, Brit Hume, Fox News’ chief political analyst and veteran of presidential election coverage, reflected on how reporters used to evaluate a political candidate’s prospects in the “old days,” when polls were either “nonexistent” or outdated. In those times, they had to rely on other factors to make their assessments.
“You’d rely on how the candidate seemed,” he said. “You relied on their events, how the events seemed to go, how well-organized they seemed to be. You looked at the response of the audience at these events. … You watched for other signs to pick up a sense of the race. And you could pretty well do it. … There are upsets in every election cycle, but you could get a sense of it.”
“If I were covering it the same way we used to cover it, I would look at this and say, Trump appears to be in the ascendancy. His campaign seems to have momentum. His events seem to be more exciting. They seem to be going better,” Hume continued.
But the vice president, he continued, “seems to be struggling. She struggles to answer questions. She’s not doing well in interviews. And so on.”
However, the current polls “don’t reflect that,” he continued. “The polls say this is absolutely neck and neck. Judged the old-fashioned way, it wouldn’t appear to be. Judged the way we judge them now because we’re just surrounded by polls, that’s where we’re getting the idea that this race is tight.”
Hume is right, noted Stauffer. She further pointed out that Trump has gained significant momentum in this race, arriving at a crucial moment. He is riding high after a series of public relations victories, she says. His brief appearance as a fry cook at a Pennsylvania McDonald’s was a clever move, and his three-hour interview with popular podcast host Joe Rogan attracted tens of millions of viewers, she continued.
He generated considerable outrage among liberals with his impressive performance at Madison Square Garden last Sunday and took aim at Presidents Biden and Harris with his garbage truck stunt, notes Stauffer.
And Trump was spot-on, she believes, when he said: “You can’t lead America if you don’t love Americans.”
In contrast, Harris has faced numerous setbacks. When the media-generated momentum of her campaign faltered in early October, she launched a media blitz, Stauffer observed.
However, her performances varied from lackluster to disastrous. Her interviews with 60 Minutes host Bill Whitaker and Fox News’s Bret Baier were particularly damaging, as they dared to pose challenging questions, she said.
Stauffer added:
Moreover, Harris foolishly opted to skip the Al Smith dinner in New York City. Worse still, she prerecorded a cringeworthy video to be played at the event instead. Trump showed up for the occasion and was said to have “killed it” with his hilarious speech. It was a missed opportunity for the vice president.
Then, in order to boost turnout ahead of Harris’s rally in Houston, Texas, last week, “anonymous sources” who were “familiar with the plan” told reporters that Beyonce would be performing at the event. When the iconic singer left the stage without singing, supporters weren’t shy about expressing their anger and profound sense of betrayal.
Throw in Biden’s comment that all Trump supporters are “garbage,” Harris’ angry tone at her rallies, and other seasoned political observers also saying they don’t think the race is as close as the polls, and it appears as though Harris is set to go down in defeat, noted Stauffer.
