OPINION: This article may contain commentary which reflects the author's opinion.
A new analysis by noted election forecasters is extremely good news for former President Donald Trump and, by default, Republicans in general.
The analysis from Decision Desk HQ cited polls from across the country to predict that Trump will win more than 300 electoral votes, mostly by flipping several states he lost in 2020.
The forecasters believe Trump “will win a total of 312 Electoral votes in November, the biggest number a GOP candidate has received since George H. W. Bush’s 1988 victory when he received 426 votes,” Newsweek reported.
The outlet added:
The estimates are the latest worrying sign for Biden as he seeks re-election. The president has long faced concerns about his low approval ratings, as well as voters believing the 81-year-old is too old for a second term in office. Former President Trump himself is also facing the prospect of being a convicted felon by November as he faces 91 criminal charges across four trials, with polls suggesting this could damage his bid to re-enter the White House.
The Decision Desk HQ analysis went on to say that Trump is on par to win several important swing states to include Nevada and Arizona. And, as of now, the 45th president looks like he’ll also win the “blue wall” swing states, including Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, all of which he won in 2016 when he defeated two-time presidential loser Hillary Clinton.
“Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania all went to Trump by less than a point in 2016 and then flipped back in favor of Biden by very narrow margins in 2020. They proved decisive in both of those elections,” Liberty Vittert, a statistician and Professor of the Practice of Data Science at the Olin Business School at Washington University in St. Louis, said in a Decision Desk HQ video, according to Newsweek.
“Had Hillary Clinton held the states in 2016, she would have defeated Trump, and had Biden failed to flip these back in 2020, Trump would be in a second term right now.”
Newsweek added: “The 312 electoral votes Trump is predicted to win would be more than the 306 Biden achieved in 2020, as well as the 304 Trump was awarded during his 2016 election victory over Clinton. The largest-ever presidential victory in terms of electoral votes was achieved by Ronald Reagan in 1984, who won 525 out of the possible 538 electoral votes after winning all but one of the 50 states in a resounding victory over Walter Mondale.”
For his part, though, Trump still faces several legal hurdles following charges filed against him by Democratic district attorneys in Manhattan and Fulton County, Georgia, as well as by his political opponent’s Justice Department in cases related to the Jan. 6 Capitol riot and his possession of classified documents.
That said, he got what one legal analyst called a “gift” earlier this week that could stave off the federal cases, at least, until after the election.
Jeffrey Toobin warned Democrats that the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision to hear Trump’s presidential immunity case is to the former president’s advantage.
Toobin stated on X, formerly known as Twitter, that Trump might only have to appear in court for one of his four trials before Election Day because the nation’s highest court decided to hear arguments in late April regarding whether or not Trump was entitled to presidential immunity in those cases.
#SCOTUS ruling is a gift to Trump, even if the Justices ultimately rule against him on immunity. A decision in late June makes a DC trial on 1/6 issues nearly impossible. 3/25 NYC trial in the Stormy case will be the only Trump criminal trial before Election Day.
— Jeffrey Toobin (@JeffreyToobin) February 28, 2024
The “ruling is a gift to Trump, even if the Justices ultimately rule against him on immunity. A decision in late June makes a D.C. trial on 1/6 issues nearly impossible. 3/25 NYC trial in the Stormy case will be the only Trump criminal trial before Election Day,” wrote Toobin.
Politico’s Kyle Cheney also noted, “The court’s decision to keep the pretrial proceedings frozen is a blow to special counsel Jack Smith’s effort to bring Trump to trial this year. Smith has charged Trump with four felonies stemming from his bid to subvert the 2020 presidential election.”
The Supreme Court declared on Wednesday that it would hear the case following Trump’s request for a stay of an appeals court decision that disregarded his claims of immunity from prosecution. Attorneys for Trump charged that Smith was trying the case ahead of the 2024 presidential election with “a political motive.”
