OPINION: This article may contain commentary which reflects the author's opinion.
Former President Donald Trump has managed to overtake Vice President Kamala Harris in a new national survey after a seven-point swing in his favor.
The poll, taken by ActiVote between October 3 and October 8, shows Trump, the Republican presidential candidate, with a 1.2 percent lead over Harris, the Democratic candidate, garnering 50.6 percent of the vote compared to her 49.4 percent.
This marks a reversal of fortunes for Trump, who was trailing Harris by 5.4 points—47.3 percent to her 52.7 percent—in a poll conducted by ActiVote between September 11 and September 17. The former president has seen a 6.6-point increase in his support in just three weeks.
Both polls surveyed 1,000 likely voters and had a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points, Newsweek reported.
This is the first time Trump has led a national poll since September 22, when a Quinnipiac University survey showed him 1 point ahead at 48 percent, compared to Harris’s 47 percent when including third-party candidates. In a head-to-head matchup, that poll indicated a tie, with both candidates receiving 48 percent. The poll surveyed 1,728 likely voters and had a margin of error of +/- 2.4 percentage points.
Since September 22, other polls have shown Harris leading Trump by as much as 7 points.
Another new poll, meanwhile, shows that Trump is ahead of Harris in five of the seven crucial swing states, which will be crucial in deciding who wins the election.
According to an AtlasIntel survey of likely voters in battleground states, Trump leads in Pennsylvania (51 percent to 48.1) and Michigan (50.6 percent to 47.2).
The former president is also in a “narrow” lead in the states that are in doubt: Arizona (49.8 percent to 48.6), Georgia (49.6 percent to 49), and Wisconsin (49.7 percent to 48.2). This information was provided by AtlasIntel. In Nevada (50.5 percent to 47.7) and North Carolina (50.5 percent to 48.1), Harris is ahead.
Also, 538 voters chose AtlasIntel as the most reliable polling organization for the 2020 presidential contest. If the Republican takes the five battleground states that he presently leads in their polling, with Harris at 248 Electoral College votes, Trump would win the 2024 election with 290 Electoral College votes.
Between September 20 and 25, AtlastIntel conducted polls, with a margin of error of two to three percentage points.
Reacting to the poll results, a Trump spokesperson told Newsweek: “Americans are sick and tired of Kamala Harris and her failed policies that have led to skyrocketing inflation, an out-of-control border- and rampant crime that terrorizes communities. She is weak, failed, and dangerously liberal, and the American people know a fraud when they see one.”
According to the AtlasIntel poll, Trump would prevail in two of Harris’s most important “blue wall” battleground states.
Barring any unexpected outcomes elsewhere, Harris only has to win the three blue wall swing states of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan to receive the 270 Electoral College votes needed to win the election.
In this case, Harris would also have to win the Electoral College in Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District, which polls indicate she is likely to do.
In the four years that followed, Joe Biden successfully flipped the 2nd Congressional District of Nebraska, which Trump had won in 2016. The only two states that do not use a winner-take-all method for allocating Electoral College votes are Maine and Nebraska.
In November, Trump will have enough votes to be proclaimed the winner even if he only wins Georgia, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina.
In addition, Trump might prevail by defeating Harris in the four swing states of the Sun Belt: Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, and Nevada; he might also win if he flips just one of Wisconsin or Michigan.
Additional new polling data from firms that have been reliable in the past also show Trump on pace to potentially win a “landslide” electoral victory over Harris.
Polling data from Trafalgar Group and Insider Advantage indicates that Trump is positioned for a potential landslide victory in the 2024 presidential election. The latest polling shows Trump with a commanding lead in several key battleground states, suggesting a solid path to victory in November.
