OPINION: This article may contain commentary which reflects the author's opinion.
Former President Donald Trump may be in lots of legal hot water thanks to his federal indictment by Joe Biden’s Justice Department, but he got some good news in the form of a major survey this week.
Trump is leading his likely Democratic rival in several swing states, according to polling data from Echelon Insights.
The survey “found that 48% of respondents in swing states would probably or definitely vote for Trump, compared to just 41% for Biden. Though Biden is narrowly favored overall by likely voters, with 43% favoring him compared to 42% for Trump, the Republican front-runner could win 270 Electoral College votes by seizing the swing states,” the Washington Examiner reported.
Additionally, when considering the challenger Cornel West from the Green Party, Biden’s grip on the overall vote is also not guaranteed. The poll reveals that West has the potential to attract a substantial portion of Biden’s liberal voters, potentially enough to tilt the majority of the ballot in favor of Trump.
“When taking West into consideration, Biden’s share of the vote drops to 42%, with West taking 4% of the vote. Trump emerges triumphant with 43% of the vote,” the Examiner added. “Trump’s lead in swing states is further solidified when West is involved as well. Trump’s share remains at 48%, while Biden’s drops to 40%.”
West can play a decisive role in the overall outcome of next year’s race if he decides to stay in as a third-party candidate.
“There is always a danger a third-party candidate can impact the Electoral College results, particularly if they receive enough votes in a battleground state or states to change the outcome,” University of Akron (Ohio) political science Prof. David B. Cohen told Newsweek. “In a close election, Cornel West could well be a spoiler.”
He noted further: “There is no evidence to suggest that the 2024 election will be anything but a very close election decided by razor-thin margins, which means that a third-party candidate could have an outsized influence in the result.”
The Examiner noted further:
Biden’s fortunes would be even worse if artist Taylor Swift decided to run as an independent candidate, with the poll finding that she would win 7% of the vote, mostly poaching votes off Biden. Her entrance into the race would send Biden’s share of the vote in swing states down to 38%. In that case, Trump would take 43% of the overall vote, compared to Biden’s 41%.
Furthering the good news for Trump in the poll, it also found that the former president would perform better than Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL), his primary Republican competitor, in a general election against Biden. In an election between DeSantis and Biden, the incumbent would receive 45% of the vote, compared to DeSantis’s 42%. He is just 1 percentage point ahead in swing states, with 44% compared to Biden’s 43%.
Trump appears to be outpolling Biden in recent months. In May, for instance, an ABC/Washington Post survey showed him with a whopping 7-point lead over Biden, Mediaite reported.
“According to the survey, the president trails his predecessor by 7 points in a hypothetical 2024 general election matchup. Respondents were asked whether they would ‘definitely’ vote for Trump or Biden, ‘probably’ vote for Trump or Biden, or vote for someone else or not vote at all. Among those who ‘definitely’ prefer one candidate over the other, Trump leads Biden 36-32. But when those ‘probably’ voting are added to the tally, Trump’s margin balloons to 7 points — as he holds a 45-38 advantage over Biden,” the report said.
And last month, the latest Harvard-Harris poll found a notable surge in support for Trump, suggesting a potential path to victory next year if he secures the GOP nomination. The poll results also indicated that Trump continues to maintain a formidable presence, despite various legal challenges.
That survey also showed Trump with a 7-point lead over Biden.
