Former President Donald Trump appears to have taken a substantial lead over President Joe Biden in a newly designated swing state following the 2020 election.
According to a Fox News survey, Trump receives 51 percent support in Georgia, while Biden’s support has fallen to just 43 percent.
Among the subset of Georgians who express a high level of interest in the race, 78 percent are either extremely or very interested. The voting preferences within this group are closely divided, with 52 percent favoring Trump and 43 percent supporting Biden, Fox News noted, citing the survey’s results.
Trump garners robust backing from his core constituencies, such as White evangelicals (85 percent), conservatives (76 percent), White voters lacking a college degree (74 percent), and rural voters (67 percent). Meanwhile, Biden’s support comes primarily from liberals (87 percent), Black voters (71 percent), college-educated voters (52 percent), and suburban women (52 percent), the survey said.
While Trump’s loss of suburban women to a Democratic presidential incumbent is cause for concern, other political analysts pointed to Trump’s commanding lead over Biden with voters under the age of 35 as significant.
“Given that the Democrats won major U.S. Senate races in 2020 and 2022, Trump’s strength in this poll is somewhat surprising,” Republican pollster Daron Shaw, who conducts the Fox News Poll with Democrat Chris Anderson, told the outlet. “We can blather on (correctly) about how ‘anything can happen,’ but the reality is Biden may want to shift his focus and precious resources away from Georgia and onto other potential battleground states, such as North Carolina.”
Fox added:
In a potential five-way race, Trump still leads the pack, but both the former president and current incumbent lose support to third-party candidates: Trump gets 45%, while Biden drops to 37% support. Other candidates receive a total of 12% support: Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. (8%), Cornel West (3%) and Jill Stein (1%).
The survey tested another hypothetical five-way race, which substitutes Nikki Haley for Trump. In this case, third-party candidates help Biden and hurt Haley. Biden comes out on top by 6 points with 35% support among Georgians, followed by Haley at 29%, Kennedy at 18%, West at 3% and Stein at 1%.
Where do Trump supporters go in this scenario? Just 46% would back Haley, while 31% would vote third-party, 6% wouldn’t cast a ballot at all and 13% are undecided. Haley gets over 50% support among registered Republicans (52%), but nowhere near the 83% Trump garners in his five-way race.
Another poll published this week puts Trump in a good position in several other swing states.
In November’s contest in Arizona (47-43 percent), Georgia (49-41), Michigan (47-42), Nevada (48-40), North Carolina (49-39), Pennsylvania (48-45), and Wisconsin (49-44), Biden is trailing the Republican front-runner by three to ten points, according to a Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll.
The average margin of victory for Trump over Biden in all states is 48–42, indicating that Biden’s chances of winning the next election appear slim, Newsweek reported.
Upon further analysis of the results, nearly two-thirds (61 percent) of swing-state voters attributed Biden, at least in part, to the rise in migrants crossing the border between the United States and Mexico. This percentage is higher than the thirty percent who blamed the Trump administration and the thirty percent who blamed Republicans in Congress.
The percentage of voters in the swing states who believe Trump will handle illegal immigration better than Biden is 52 to 30 percent, up from a 5-point difference from the December poll.
The results, according to CNN commentator and former Trump White House communications director Alyssa Farah Griffin, show “eye-popping numbers” for Trump in battleground states.
“This should be a 5 alarm fire for the Biden campaign,” Griffin posted on X, formerly Twitter.
Eye-popping numbers for Trump in battleground states. This should be a 5 alarm 🚨 fire for the Biden campaign https://t.co/TGQYnQv1pA
— Alyssa Farah Griffin (@Alyssafarah) January 31, 2024
“It’s not just that these demographic groups are ‘abandoning’ Joe Biden. Donald Trump is gaining among key Democratic constituencies, Hispanic, Under 35. It’s the one poll NOT showing gains among Black voters. Clearly he is in the consensus,” pollster Richard Baris said last month after examining several recent polls.
This article may contain commentary which reflects the author's opinion.
