OPINION: This article may contain commentary which reflects the author's opinion.
Former President Donald Trump got another round of good news late last week in the form of a new survey in a state that has long been dominated by Democrats.
The Wall Street Journal on Friday released the results from a poll that surveyed swing state voters about the 2024 election, and while Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are nearly deadlocked in all of them, one state in particular — Nevada — was an exception.
The poll, released Friday morning, indicates that Trump has taken a commanding lead in Nevada with 47 percent compared to Harris’s 42 percent. In the other six states, the race is essentially a tie, with the candidates separated by 2 points or less. Harris is ahead by 1 or 2 points in Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Georgia, while Trump has 1-point leads in Pennsylvania and North Carolina.
The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points for each state. In the swing states surveyed, 600 registered voters were polled between September 28 and October 8, and the poll included third-party candidates in states where they will be on the ballot.
Overall, among the swing-state voters surveyed, Trump leads Harris 46 percent to 45 percent. Ninety-three percent of both Democrats and Republicans indicated they would support their party’s nominee. Independent voters were evenly divided, with 40 percent favoring Harris and 39 percent supporting Trump, highlighting the tightness of the race and its partisan divide, the WSJ found.
The Journal’s poll also included questions about which candidate was perceived as more capable of leading on specific issues.
When asked who would be “best able” to handle the economy—the top concern for the surveyed voters—Trump outperformed Harris in every state, leading 50 percent to 40 percent overall. Respondents also expressed greater trust in Trump regarding inflation and immigration issues. Conversely, Harris was deemed more trustworthy on abortion, with a 51 percent to 35 percent advantage.
Harry Enten of CNN examined party registration data both nationwide and in battleground states over the weekend, noting that, based on historical data, he believes the evidence indicates Republicans will likely win.
“In November 2020, you saw Democrats at 47%, and Republicans at 39%. That was an eight-point advantage. Look at where we are today. Yes, more voters in Pennsylvania are still registered as Democrats than Republicans, but it’s now just 44% to 40%. They’ve got a four-point gap. Republicans have cut that Democratic advantage in half in such a short period of time,” Enten said.
“The GOP leads by a point in party identification right now. The average when the Republican Party loses is the Democrats ahead by eight. When the Republican Party wins, the average party ID advantage for Democrats is at three. Republicans right now, are doing even better than the average when they win,” Enten explained.
CNN’s Manu Raju asked: “What have you found about how voters are leaning at this point compared to 2020?”
“Yeah, I mean, the voter registration fresh numbers—if you want a stat that Republicans absolutely love, it’s this one, right? Pennsylvania voter registration, you register by party in that state. You go back to November 2020, you see Democrats at 47%, and Republicans at 39%. That was an eight-point advantage,” the CNN political data analyst responded.
“Look at where we are today. Yes, more voters in Pennsylvania are still registered as Democrats than Republicans, but it’s now just 44% to 40%. They’ve got a four-point gap. Republicans have cut that Democratic advantage in half in such a short period of time. They’ve gone out, registered voters, and there are folks who have come over to their side who were previously registered Democrats,” Enten said.
He added: “The question is: Where are they picking up ground? This, to me, says it all. If you look at Pennsylvania counties where the GOP has gained in registration, in counties where less than 50% of the population is non-college white voters, Republicans have gained just a point. But in areas where over 50% are non-college whites, look at this—Republicans have gained six points on average.”
