OPINION: This article may contain commentary which reflects the author's opinion.
Former President Donald Trump got some more good news in the form of a poll on Friday as it increasingly appears as though there will be a Trump-Joe Biden rematch in next year’s presidential contest.
According to the latest Harvard CAPS-Harris poll, Trump is leading Biden among Independents by 18 points, a huge margin that could definitely put some swing states in play for him.
“The survey found that Donald Trump holds a five-point lead over Biden among all voters, with 45 percent supporting Trump to 40 percent who back Biden. However, 16 percent of voters remain undecided in a hypothetical 2020 rematch,” Breitbart News reported, citing the survey.
🚨 NATIONAL POLL: Harvard/Harris
PRES:
(R) Trump: 45% (+5)
(D) Biden: 40%Independents
(R) Trump: 45% (+18)
(D) Biden: 27%
——
GOP PRES:
Trump — 52% (+40)
DeSantis — 12%
Ramaswamy — 10%
Pence — 7%
Haley — 4%
Scott — 2%
Christie — 2%Harvard//Harris | 07/19-20 | 2,068 RV pic.twitter.com/qcFGHJHeIc
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) July 21, 2023
“The ideological breakdown of the survey reveals that 45 percent of independent voters prefer Trump, while just 27 percent of independents support Biden,” the outlet continued.
Meanwhile, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis finds himself in a virtual tie in a hypothetical matchup against Biden, with both candidates securing 41 percent and 40 percent support, respectively.
DeSantis maintains a slight two-point lead in a hypothetical matchup against Vice President Kamala Harris, with 41 percent support to Harris’s 39 percent. However, Trump’s lead expands to 47 percent over Harris’s 40 percent in the same hypothetical matchup.
Meanwhile, Trump is leading his likely Democratic rival in several swing states, according to polling data from Echelon Insights released earlier this month.
The survey “found that 48% of respondents in swing states would probably or definitely vote for Trump, compared to just 41% for Biden. Though Biden is narrowly favored overall by likely voters, with 43% favoring him compared to 42% for Trump, the Republican front-runner could win 270 Electoral College votes by seizing the swing states,” the Washington Examiner reported.
Additionally, when considering the challenger Cornel West from the Green Party, Biden’s grip on the overall vote is also not guaranteed. The poll reveals that West has the potential to attract a substantial portion of Biden’s liberal voters, potentially enough to tilt the majority of the ballot in favor of Trump.
“When taking West into consideration, Biden’s share of the vote drops to 42%, with West taking 4% of the vote. Trump emerges triumphant with 43% of the vote,” the Examiner added. “Trump’s lead in swing states is further solidified when West is involved as well. Trump’s share remains at 48%, while Biden’s drops to 40%.”
West can play a decisive role in the overall outcome of next year’s race if he decides to stay in as a third-party candidate.
“There is always a danger a third-party candidate can impact the Electoral College results, particularly if they receive enough votes in a battleground state or states to change the outcome,” University of Akron (Ohio) political science Prof. David B. Cohen told Newsweek. “In a close election, Cornel West could well be a spoiler.”
He noted further: “There is no evidence to suggest that the 2024 election will be anything but a very close election decided by razor-thin margins, which means that a third-party candidate could have an outsized influence in the result.”
The Examiner noted further:
Biden’s fortunes would be even worse if artist Taylor Swift decided to run as an independent candidate, with the poll finding that she would win 7% of the vote, mostly poaching votes off Biden. Her entrance into the race would send Biden’s share of the vote in swing states down to 38%. In that case, Trump would take 43% of the overall vote, compared to Biden’s 41%.
Furthering the good news for Trump in the poll, it also found that the former president would perform better than Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL), his primary Republican competitor, in a general election against Biden. In an election between DeSantis and Biden, the incumbent would receive 45% of the vote, compared to DeSantis’s 42%. He is just 1 percentage point ahead in swing states, with 44% compared to Biden’s 43%.
