OPINION: This article may contain commentary which reflects the author's opinion.
Former President Donald Trump has taken a lead over Vice President Kamala Harris in the crucial swing state of Michigan following their debate earlier this week.
Harris has consistently led in Michigan since being anointed by President Joe Biden and the Democratic Party has his successor after his disastrous June debate with Trump, but according to a new Insider Advantage survey, that has changed, and it is due in large part to black voters.
The survey found that Trump has a 1-point advantage over Harris, 49-48 percent, with a 5-point advantage among Independents, per pollster Matt Towery, who noted that wasn’t the only surprise he found in the poll results.
“The poll also showed a slightly higher amount of support for Trump among African-Americans (around 20%), which may be an aberration, or a reflection of higher African-American numbers seen in recent national surveys such as The New York Times survey,” he added.
The 20% threshold is notable, especially since Trump campaign surrogates mentioned this summer that they aim to secure 25% to 30% of the black male vote. In the 2020 election, the former president received only 12% of the black vote.
Trump leads Harris in Michigan after debate — as black voters help boost ex-president https://t.co/zexkqZkbXH pic.twitter.com/lWnGsChk9k
— New York Post (@nypost) September 12, 2024
Towery did warn, however, that the surge in black support for Trump may be unique to Michigan and might not have a significant impact in this particular state.
“Michigan’s African-American vote, while not insignificant, is half that of swing states such as Georgia, so the elevated numbers, if reduced to past historical levels, would not change the basic tie within the margins,” he said. “I suspect that for various reasons unique to Michigan in this cycle, the African-American numbers are fairly accurate, at least for this stage in the contest.”
He noted further that the debate did not have much of an effect on voter sentiments.
“The race remains extremely competitive both in Michigan and likely all of the battleground states,” Towery said, arguing that “the debate had little or no impact on the contest, particularly among independent voters, in this particular state.”
Commission on Presidential Debates Co-Founder and Co-Chair Frank J. Fahrenkopf Jr., who also was Chair of the Republican National Committee, declared that the performance by ABC moderators David Muir and Linsey Davis was “the worst performance that I’ve seen.”
During an interview on Newsmax TV’s “The Record,” Fahrenkopf Jr. said the moderators were “clearly were oversized, I think, on the way they treated” Trump and “bent backwards to help” Harris.
“I thought one of the things that really shocked me last night was the way the moderators handled it. We always explain to our moderators, and we’ve done 33 of those, Greta, starting back in 1988, that their job is to be facilitators,” Fahrenkopf Jr. said.
“They’re not to get involved themselves. It’s different than if you had someone on your show and you asked them a question and they answered it in a different way than they said a month before, you would correct them. But moderators are not supposed to do that. A debate is between the candidates, not a debate between the candidate and the moderators,” he added.
Fahrenkopf Jr. continued, “And these moderators, so far as I was concerned, it was the worst performance that I’ve seen. And I’ve — as I said, I’ve done 33 of these things over the years. I don’t know what their thoughts were, but they clearly were oversized, I think, on the way they treated the former President and the way they treated the present Vice President, I think they bent backwards to help her.”
The mainstream media largely praised Harris for her performance in the debate on Tuesday night, but polling taken after the debate largely indicates the needle did not move much for her, if at all, especially in the crucial swing states.