OPINION: This article may contain commentary which reflects the author's opinion.
CNN political data analyst Harry Enten broke down the numbers behind a stunning new survey that shows how former President Donald Trump is beating President Joe Biden in most of the country’s battleground and swing states.
During a segment on Monday, Enten discussed polling data from The New York Times, Siena College, and the Philadelphia Inquirer that found Trump leading in five of six swing states. More interesting, however, is the fact that Trump’s increasing support is coming from non-traditional voter blocs and demographics.
Notably, Trump holds a 9% advantage over Biden in Georgia, a state that played a pivotal role in the disputed 2020 presidential results and witnessed two noteworthy U.S. Senate victories for Democrats that same year.
Additionally, Trump currently enjoys a 6% lead among likely voters in Arizona, a state he narrowly lost four years ago. Trump is also up over Biden by a whopping 13 points in Nevada.
“These numbers are an absolute disaster… 13 in Nevada? My goodness!” said Enten. “No Democrat has lost that state since John Kerry lost it back in 2004. Results for Biden were no much better among the Great Lakes states where Trump leads Biden by 3% in Pennsylvania, 1% in Wisconsin, and remains just 1% behind in Michigan.” However, “this they can work with,” he added before pointing back to the Sun Belt results. “This the Donald Trump campaign absolutely loves, and it looks like a lot of other polling.”
In Sun Belt states, where the population is characterized by a more diverse mix of working-class individuals, particularly among Hispanic voters, Trump’s backing has surged from 13% to 19% over the past four years. Conversely, his support among white voters has slightly declined, moving from 84% to 78%.
“Those Sun Belt battleground states are more diverse than the Great Lake battleground states,” explained the analyst. Looking at the Electoral College math, the advantage goes to Trump, “but he’s not over the 270 mark just yet,” Enten added.
WATCH:
"Absolute Disaster" – CNN analyst Harry Enten sounds the alarm for the Biden campaign as Trump pulls farther ahead in battleground states. pic.twitter.com/5176s5Es6l
— USA Features Media (@UsaFeatures) May 13, 2024
Republicans are more excited about Trump returning to the White House than Democrats are about Biden serving another four years in office.
According to a recent Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research survey, 54% of Republicans surveyed said that they would be “excited” about a second term of a Trump presidency.
When it came to Biden winning the rematch between the incumbent White House president and his predecessor in November’s presidential election, just four out of ten Democrats expressed the same sentiment.
According to the poll, seven out of ten Democrats said they would feel “angry” or “fearful” if Trump were to win the presidency. If Biden were to defeat Trump for the second time in a row, 56% of Republicans would express the same sentiment.
Both enthusiasm for and distaste for the two front-runners in a race that polls predict will be very close will probably be important catalysts for igniting the Republican and Democratic bases.
With less than seven months until Election Day on November 5, Trump has an early advantage in public opinion surveys, which he holds in the majority of national surveys as well as in numerous polls in five of the six crucial battleground states where Biden defeated Trump by a narrow margin to win the 2020 presidential election.
For months, national polls have shown that the vast majority of Americans’ number one concern heading into the 2024 elections is the state of the economy or, more specifically, their own personal finances amid 25–30 percent price increases for most consumer goods since Biden became president.
Another new survey shows that hasn’t changed.
The latest Financial Times-Michigan Ross poll released on Sunday found that former President Donald Trump is trusted more on the economy than Biden by 8 points, 43–35 percent.
“In another worrying sign for the White House, the monthly FT-Michigan Ross survey has consistently found voters trust Trump more than Biden when it comes to handling the economy,” according to the poll analysis, noting that Trump has gained 2 points since the previous survey.
