OPINION: This article may contain commentary which reflects the author's opinion.
Former President Donald Trump has recorded his biggest lead yet over Vice President Kamala Harris in a key election metric.
One week after the former president gained a fresh lead over Harris, new bets are propelling him to new heights among those forecasting victories in several critical swing states on November 5th.
Notably, in Arizona, analysts predict a Trump win by a substantial 68-32% margin; in Georgia, he holds a similar 64-36% lead; and in North Carolina—a state embroiled in a growing FEMA disaster relief controversy—Trump currently leads Harris 63-37%.
Compounding the challenges for Harris is the belief among bettors that the “blue wall” will not hold in Michigan and Wisconsin. Trump is projected to win in those states by narrower margins of 54-46% and 52-48%, respectively.
However, in the must-win state of Pennsylvania, Trump holds a 10-point lead over Harris, with a forecast of 55-45% among those placing bets. The only state still leaning in favor of Harris is Nevada, albeit narrowly, as she holds a 51-49% lead among bettors. Yet even there, recent polling indicates that Trump is ahead by as much as 5%.
Overall, 57% of bettors are now forecasting a Trump victory in November, marking the largest lead he has maintained since Harris launched her campaign in August. At the peak of his lead over President Joe Biden, nearly three in four bettors believed his victory was inevitable.
.@Polymarket – Presidential Election Winner
🟥 Donald Trump: 55%
🟦 Kamala Harris: 45%
——
Swing States (chance of winning)Pennsylvania – 🔴 Trump 55-45%
Arizona – 🔴 Trump 67-33%
Georgia – 🔴 Trump 64-36%
North Carolina – 🔴 Trump 63-37%
Michigan – 🔴 Trump 52-48%
Wisconsin… pic.twitter.com/ZRhhYHUo2s— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) October 14, 2024
Positive news for the Trump campaign continues to emerge from swing states across the country.
Since the first and only debate between running mates J.D. Vance (R-OH) and Gov. Tim Walz, a Yahoo News/YouGov poll has shown the race between Harris and Trump tightening to just 2%, with the Democrat leading the Republican 48% to 46%—a poll that has consistently underestimated Trump’s support.
Mark Halperin, an author and journalist who has chronicled the rise and fall of presidential candidates for decades, noted last week that voters’ dissatisfaction with Harris is evident in poll after poll.
“What’s happening now with Kamala Harris is an experiment,” Halperin told 2WAY TV in an interview. “Can you win a short campaign with an untested candidate? And what I’m telling you in private polling is she’s got a problem now. It’s not cheering for Trump. It’s not predicting Trump will win, [but] she’s got a problem.”
He referenced a recent New York Times poll showing Harris ahead by 3% nationally, a position that places her on the “bubble” of a lead that is not guaranteed. Simultaneously, the Wall Street Journal reported on Harris’s difficulty in connecting with working-class voters in areas like Wisconsin, where internal polling from Sen. Tammy Baldwin’s (D-WI) campaign has indicated that Harris is trailing Trump by the same margin.
“There’s no path without Wisconsin,” Halperin said. “Wisconsin and Michigan are looking worse than before.”
Harris had a curt response to a reporter’s question about how her interview went with Fox News anchor Bret Baier, which aired Wednesday evening.
“How was the interview?” a reporter called out as Harris made her way to Air Force Two following the sit-down with Baier, which took place in the battleground state of Pennsylvania.
“It was good,” Harris said as she hurried to board her plane.
WATCH:
REPORTER: How was the interview?
KAMALA: It was good.
NO IT WAS NOT😂😂😂
— Graham Allen (@GrahamAllen_1) October 16, 2024
At one point during the nearly 30-minute interview, Baier challenged Harris over her assessment of her GOP opponent, former President Donald Trump, as being “unfit” for office, asking her repeatedly when she noticed that President Joe Biden was in steep mental decline.
“You told many interviewers that Joe Biden was on his game, that ran around circles on his staff. When did you first notice that President Biden’s mental faculties appeared diminished?” Baier asked.
Harris paused, then said: “Joe Biden, I have watched from the Oval Office to the Situation Room, and he has the judgment and the experience to do exactly what he has done in making very important decisions on behalf of the American people.”
“There were no concerns raised?” Baier followed.
“Bret, Joe Biden is not on the ballot… and Donald Trump is,” Harris responded.
