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Trump’s Chances Of Beating Harris Increase After Debate: Report

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OPINION: This article may contain commentary which reflects the author's opinion.


There has been a ton of talk in the media and in Democrat circles, which often coincide, that party presidential nominee Kamala Harris defeated former President Donald Trump in their debate, but it has not played out that way in real life.

After the debate polling shows that, while Americans do believe the vice president did perform better on the debate stage, they are moving toward voting for the former president.

Nate Silver, one of the most accurate pollsters in the business, have given the former president a 61 percent chance of taking back the presidency with a 63 percent chance of taking Pennsylvania and a 52 percent of chance of victory in Michigan.

The polls actually increased from what the pollster had the former president’s advantage at pre-debate.

Silver, who founded the polling website FiveThirtyEight and who now publishes his own election model on Substack had the former president with a massive advantage.

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The model he published last Wednesday showed the former president with a 58.2 percent chance of recapturing the White House and had the vice president at 41.6 percent.

The week prior the model had the odds at 52.4 vs. 47.3 in favor of the former president and the pollster said the reason for the vice president’s fall is that her national polling numbers have not been matched in the battleground states that tend to decide presidential elections.

“There’s room to debate the convention bounce stuff, but Harris has been getting a lot of mediocre state polls lately. The chance of Harris winning the popular vote but losing the electoral college has risen to 18%,” he said on X, formerly Twitter.

“In addition to Pennsylvania, Michigan has become something of an issue for Harris. National polls and polls of other swing states mostly decent for Harris, but erosion in PA/MI hurts a lot in the model,” the pollster said.

“In PA, our polling averages had Harris +1.8 pre-DNC, but it’s now Harris +1.0. That’s before any convention bounce adjustment, which is implemented at a later stage of the model. In MI, the polling average has fallen from Harris +3.1 pre-DNC to Harris +1.9 now,” he said.

And it actually got worse for the vice president last Thursday.

“More mediocre swing state polls for Harris, and her lead in national polls is down a tick, too, to 3.0 points. Note that these polling averages aren’t affected by convention bounce stuff,” the pollster said.

“I’d also note that Harris’s raw polling averages have DECLINED in most swing states since the start of the DNC. This data is NOT subject to the convention bounce adjustment. She’s had a run of pretty mediocre state polling,” he said.

“The Electoral College / popular vote gap has gotten quite bad for Harris. Now a 20% chance she wins the popular vote but loses the EC,” he said.

And before anyone accuses him of being a “Trumper” he went on to explain in another post that he intends to vote for the vice president.

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And he is not the only one sounding the alarm for her.

CNN’s political director, David Chalian, noted that white voters without college degrees are a particularly problematic group for Harris, whereas Trump has a significant advantage.

“If you look at the white voters without college degrees, this is a Trump-based constituency, obviously,” said Chalian. “You see his huge numbers with this group. You see that this is a trouble sign for Harris.”

He further noted that the vice president is also struggling with another key demographic: white, college-educated voters in battleground states.

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