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27% Say Trump’s Conviction Makes Them More Likely To Support Him: Poll

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OPINION: This article may contain commentary which reflects the author's opinion.


Over 25% of respondents revealed that former President Donald Trump’s conviction in his New York hush money case increased their likelihood of endorsing the presumed GOP nominee.

“The survey from Emerson College Polling released Thursday revealed that 4 in 10 voters said the former president’s conviction in his first criminal case made no impact on whom they will vote for in November,” The Hill reported.

Thirty-three percent of them stated they would be less inclined to support the leader of the Republican Party as a result of the Manhattan jury’s decision to convict him.

“Trump’s support in our polling remained the same before and after his conviction,” said Spencer Kimball, the executive director of Emerson College Polling.

Last Thursday, a New York jury rendered a historic verdict, finding the former president guilty of 34 felonies related to falsifying corporate records. Trump has persisted in saying he did nothing wrong, and his staff will probably file an appeal with the court.

In the study, 46% of registered voters still favor Trump, reflecting the stability of his base of support. In the poll conducted in April, his percentage remained the same. His advantage against his primary opponent in the general election, President Biden, shrank from three to one point.

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According to the poll, most Republicans (55 percent) said their conviction makes them more likely to support the former president, while the majority of Democrats (51 percent) said it makes them less likely to support Trump.

Roughly 41% of independents claimed it had an effect. About 38% of respondents indicated they would be less likely to cast a ballot for the former president, while 21% said they would be more likely to do so.

On July 11, which is just four days before the Republican National Convention in 2024, Trump is scheduled to be sentenced. According to 40% of respondents in the survey, he ought to serve time in prison. 15% said he should be placed on probation, and 25% thought he should pay a fine.

The survey was administered to one thousand registered voters on June 4–5.

The poll comes as Trump’s campaign has formally sent vice presidential vetting papers to a short list of potential running mates, and the list includes mostly familiar names.

Multiple news outlets report that Sens. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), J.D. Vance (R-Ohio), and Tim Scott (R-S.C.), plus Reps. Byron Donalds (R-Fla.) and Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.), have received the forms, as have North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum (R) and former Housing and Urban Development Secretary Ben Carson.

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NBC News claimed that the process is “heavily concentrated on four top prospects”—Burgum, Rubio, Scott, and Vance.

The absence of South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem (R), Arizona U.S. Senate candidate Kari Lake, and Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) as vetting prospects was conspicuously evident in multiple high-profile reports, all of which relied on sources familiar with Trump’s campaign. However, the process is fluid, an insider told the Associated Press.

“Anyone claiming to know who or when President Trump will choose his VP is lying, unless the person is named Donald J. Trump,” Trump campaign spokesperson Brian Hughes said in a statement to outlets on Wednesday.

Meanwhile, Trump has doubled down on his prediction of winning a historically blue state in a video he posted to his Truth Social platform on Tuesday.

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Trump, who was born in Queens, New York, says he will win his birth state, though for now, polling suggests otherwise.

“I believe that with your support, we can win the state of New York and I’m looking to win it as your presidential nominee. We are going to win New York – remember those words. I hope I’m gonna be correct. If I am, the election is over,” he said. ‘

“There’s tremendous discontent in New York with hundreds of thousands of illegal immigrants taking over your schools and your playgrounds, and the crime that’s happening in the city of New York and the state of New York. The lack of supervision, the lack of control, the lack of leadership, terrible things are happening in New York. I think we can win it,” he added.

“And again, we’re gonna make a big play for New York, presidentially,” Trump reiterated. “And so get out and join us. It’s gonna be one of the greatest wins, I think, in the history of the state. There’s no question about it, and I do believe we can do it.”

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