One of the most closely watched gubernatorial contests of the 2026 midterms is officially set after Florida voters handed decisive primary victories to Republican Byron Donalds and Democrat David Jolly.
Donalds easily captured the Republican nomination and will face Jolly, a former Republican congressman who later joined the Democratic Party, in the Nov. 3 general election to succeed term-limited Gov. Ron DeSantis.
Vice President J.D. Vance told a room full of Republican voters in Lakeland Thursday that Florida “is facing one of the easiest choices I have ever seen in politics in my entire life,” while mocking Democratic Senate candidate Angie Nixon and gubernatorial candidate David Jolly.
Most of the attendees told the Times/Herald they were all-in on every Republican up and down the ballot.
Longtime Donalds supporter Betty Lou Mazuca said there’s “not a chance” Jolly, a former Republican, will pull voters away from Donalds in November.
The matchup pits two former members of Congress against each other, but with dramatically different political trajectories.
Jolly represented Florida in Congress as a Republican from 2014 to 2017 before leaving the GOP, becoming an independent and eventually joining the Democratic Party.
His break with Republicans was driven in significant part by his opposition to Trump, dating back to Trump’s first presidential campaign in 2015.
“If the election were tonight, we would win the general election in Florida as a Democratic candidate,” Jolly told CNN shortly before Tuesday’s results were called.
Jolly acknowledged the difficulty of the race but argued that the political environment could provide Democrats with an opening.
“The cycle is presenting an opportunity where voters are just screaming for change,” he said.
Jolly nevertheless faces a formidable challenge.
Florida Democrats have not won a gubernatorial election in more than a quarter-century, and the state has moved substantially toward Republicans during the Trump era.
Trump carried Florida by approximately 13 percentage points in the 2024 presidential election, while DeSantis won reelection by nearly 20 points in 2022.
Republicans also enter the general election with a sizable voter-registration advantage, giving Donalds strong political fundamentals heading into the final months of the campaign.
Recent polling, however, suggests the contest could be more competitive than Florida’s recent statewide election results might indicate.
A University of North Florida poll conducted in July showed Donalds leading Jolly 46% to 41%, with 6% undecided and another 5% supporting another candidate.
The same survey found an especially tight race among voters unaffiliated with either major party, with Donalds receiving 39% and Jolly 38%.
Other surveys have given Donalds somewhat larger advantages.
A Targoz Market Research poll conducted for the James Madison Institute showed Donalds ahead 45% to 38%, with 17% either undecided or choosing another option.
A Stetson University Center for Public Opinion Research survey similarly gave Donalds a seven-point advantage, 47% to 40%.
Political science professor Craig Agranoff said before the primary that Florida’s recent electoral history gives Republicans significant structural advantages, although he cautioned against assuming the outcome is predetermined.
“Right now the fundamentals favor Republicans holding the seat, but a closer race than expected is possible if independents swing hard or if economic concerns dominate,” Agranoff told Newsweek.
“It is not locked up yet, but the baseline favors the GOP,” he added.
Prediction markets have been considerably more bullish on Republican chances than recent public polling. Kalshi and Polymarket both placed the probability of a Republican victory above 80%.
The Cook Political Report has also categorized the contest as a Solid Republican pickup.
Donalds now enters the general election with Trump’s endorsement, an established national profile and the advantage of running in a state that has shifted sharply toward the GOP in recent election cycles.
Jolly, meanwhile, will attempt to capitalize on a potentially favorable midterm environment and convince Florida voters to hand Democrats control of the governor’s mansion for the first time since the 1990s.
This article may contain commentary which reflects the author's opinion.
