OPINION: This article may contain commentary which reflects the author's opinion.
A Democratic senator up for reelection in 2024 and who is looking increasingly vulnerable in a red-leaning state is reassessing his options in what could be the prelude to a GOP pickup during the next election cycle.
Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) said over the weekend he will be discussing the issue with his family over whether to run for a fourth term, the Washington Examiner reported. Tester was asked about potentially leaving his party on the heels of a decision by former Democratic colleague-turned-Independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, who announced her departure last week in an op-ed. For her part, she has not said whether she will run for a second term.
“If I decide to run in this thing, and it’ll be a discussion that I have with my family over the holidays because it is a big undertaking, I feel good about my chances,” Tester told NBC News’ Chuck Todd on Sunday.
WATCH:
EXCLUSIVE: @SenatorTester (D-Mont.) hasn't made a decision about running for re-election in 2024.
"It'll be a discussion that I'll have with my family over the holidays," he tells @chucktodd. pic.twitter.com/6nMslV71FF
— Meet the Press (@MeetThePress) December 11, 2022
Tester won’t commit to running for reelection in 2024 https://t.co/Z1OWxjie8U pic.twitter.com/Zt7QblhLyR
— The Hill (@thehill) December 11, 2022
As for Tester, former President Donald Trump won his state by 16 points in 2020, and it has increasingly trended red. Also, Democrats face an uphill battle in 2024 in terms of keeping the Senate, having to defend 23 of the 34 seats up for election.
At least three Democrats — Tester in Montana, as well as Joe Manchin in West Virginia and Sherrod Brown in Ohio — are defending blue seats in solid red states, indicating that the GOP could pick up at least three more seats next cycle and, if they defend the others, retake control of the chamber in a presidential election year. If they can flip Sinema’s seat, or if she starts to caucus with Republicans, the margin will only grow.
“All three won reelection in 2018, but those elections took place in a heavily Democratic-leaning environment that they can’t count on having again in 2024. In addition to those three redder seats, Republicans will surely also target swing-state seats in Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin,” the political analyst site FiveThirtyEight reported.
“Though Republicans have ample pickup opportunities, Democrats can realistically hope to flip only two GOP-held seats in 2024: Florida and Texas. Still, given the strong Republican showings in Florida recently and the inability of Texas Democrats to break through statewide, even as the state has become a lighter shade of red, the GOP incumbents will likely start as favorites in these seats in a way that isn’t true for Brown, Manchin and Tester,” the site continued.
That said, last month after Republicans failed to do better in the midterms, a revealing new survey found that most Republican voters are done with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky.
According to polling and political research firm Rasmussen Reports, “Republican congressional leaders remain unpopular, even with their own party’s voters, who overwhelmingly want to get rid of” the 80-year-old Kentucky senator, adding:
A new national telephone and online survey by Rasmussen Reports and Paul Bedard’s “Washington Secrets” finds that just 28% of Likely U.S. voters have a favorable impression of McConnell, including five percent (5%) who have a Very Favorable opinion of him. That’s down from 31% who viewed the Kentucky Republican favorably in August. LINK TO Pelosi Slightly More Popular Now Sixty-four percent (64%) now view McConnell unfavorably, including 35% who have a Very Unfavorable impression of him.
Only 21% of Likely Voters believe Senate Republicans keep McConnell as leader, while 61% think they should choose a new leader. Sixty-two percent (62%) of Republican voters want to get rid of McConnell as Senate GOP leader, a sentiment shared by 58% of Democrats and 63% of voters not affiliated with either major party. Among self-identified conservative voters, two-thirds (66%) want Senate Republicans to choose a new leader.
GOP likely voters favor House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) only slightly more, the polling firm noted, as he appears in line to become Speaker, replacing fellow Californian and Democratic Rep. Nancy Pelosi.
“Thirty-seven percent (37%) of voters view McCarthy favorably, including 11% who have a Very Favorable impression of him. Forty-six percent (46%) view McCarthy unfavorably, including 26% whose opinion is Very Unfavorable. Another 17% are not sure,” the firm noted.
