OPINION: This article may contain commentary which reflects the author's opinion.
Things have gone from bad to worse for President Joe Biden.
In an exclusive USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll, former President Donald Trump defeated Biden 40% to 38%, drawing a near-tie in a volatile electorate as the candidates get underway.
“Nearly eight months out, the election is not set yet. One in four surveyed said they might change their minds before November. That unsettled sentiment was bipartisan, including 14% of Biden voters and 15% of Trump voters,” USA Today reported.
The outlet added: “Most of those now backing a third-party candidate said they were open to changing their minds, among them 75% of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. supporters and 94% of Jill Stein supporters. That signals the potential erosion independent candidates often see as Election Day nears. It also provides a big opportunity for each major-party candidate to make his case to voters who are now reluctant to support him and to convince those voters that it would be dangerous or unwise to back the other guy.”
Concerns about immigration (24%) and challenges to democracy (23%) trailed closely behind voters’ rankings of inflation and the economy, which accounted for 29% of their vote.
Abortion was the only other topic to reach double digits, coming in at 10%, the poll found.
Another new survey shows Biden falling further behind Trump on the issues voters care most about this election year.
According to the ABC/Ipsos poll conducted between March 8 and 9, 36 percent of respondents said that they trusted Trump compared to 33 percent who said they trusted Biden, while 30 percent said neither candidate had their trust.
Trump received higher ratings than Biden on all issues except abortion and climate change when respondents were asked about their opinions on the job performance of both presidents.
Trump garnered a 49 percent favorable rating on the economy, contrasting with Biden’s 37 percent.
Regarding inflation, 45 percent approved of Trump, compared to 31 percent for Biden. Regarding crime, Trump was viewed more favorably at 41 percent compared to Biden’s 35 percent.
Similarly, on immigration, the former president received a 45 percent favorable rating, while Biden trailed with 29 percent.
A new analysis says that post-State of the Union Address polling doesn’t align with the hyping of Biden’s performance by fellow Democrats and the bulk of the ‘mainstream’ media.
Writing in the Washington Post, Aaron Blake said that “it’s not so clear the American public saw the home run that they did,” adding that instant post-speech polling from CNN and a few other outlets wasn’t as good as it normally could have been.
Biden’s campaign and several media outlets have highlighted a post-speech instant CNN poll indicating that 65 percent of viewers gave a positive review of Biden’s speech. Additionally, viewers’ perception of the country’s direction shifted by 17 points, with 62 percent believing the country is headed in the right direction after the speech, up from 45 percent before, Blake wrote, adding:
Both of these are true. What’s also true is that State of the Union speeches almost always receive strongly favorable views, in part because viewership tends to draw disproportionately from their allies.
The 65 percent who had a positive view of the speech was actually lower than any such speech CNN has polled in the past quarter-century — the previous low being Donald Trump’s 2018 address (70 percent).
The 35 percent who gave a “very” positive review effectively tied with last year’s rating (34 percent) for the lowest on record. Following closely were Biden’s 2022 speech and George W. Bush’s 2007 speech, each receiving “very” positive marks from 41 percent of viewers.
“The 17-point shift toward the country moving in the ‘right direction’ was also unremarkable, historically speaking. Dating back to Bill Clinton’s 1998 State of the Union address, viewers have shifted an average of 15 points toward that more optimistic view,” Blake wrote.
“Now we get to the caveat, and that’s that viewers Thursday were less aligned with the president than your average State of the Union audience — potentially because we’re in a campaign year or because questions about Biden’s ability to perform drew in more people who were skeptical of him,” he continued. “That appears to explain at least part of the poorer-than-normal reviews — but not all.”
