OPINION: This article may contain commentary which reflects the author's opinion.
New York Democrats have proposed a new redistricting map that could give them several U.S. House seats.
As noted by the New York Times, New York Democrats’ partisan redesign of the state’s congressional map would give them “an advantage in 22 of the state’s 26 House districts in this fall’s midterm election.”
The newly unveiled plan has sparked outrage from conservatives, who are calling it an “egregiously biased map” that is a “brazen and outrageous attempt at rigging the election to keep Nancy Pelosi as speaker.”
According to analysis at FiveThirtyEight, the map “severely” tilts the “playing field toward Democrats”:
The proposed map has an efficiency gap of D+9, but that understates how severely it would tilt the playing field toward Democrats. The proposed map creates 20 Democratic-leaning seats and only four Republican-leaning seats and two highly competitive seats (both of which tilt toward Democrats themselves).
This is an increase of three Democratic-leaning seats, a decrease of three Republican-leaning seats, and a decrease of one highly competitive seat from the old map.
If the map is enacted, it would likely set up Democrats to flip the open Republican-held 1st and 22nd districts, as well as Republican Rep. Nicole Malliotakis’s 11th District. GOP Rep. Claudia Tenney would also be thrown into a competitive race against Democratic Rep. Antonio Delgado in the new 19th District.
Republicans need to net gain 5 seats in November to take control of the U.S. House.
While redistricting is taking place in many states across the country, this plan from New York Democrats — which could still be struck down — would allow Democrats to potentially gain 3 new seats in the U.S. House.
In their report, even FiveThirtyEight noted how biased and partisan the new map is.
“Such an egregiously biased map was only possible because of the weakness of New York’s new bipartisan redistricting commission,” FiveThirtyEight explained. “Under state law, the legislature may simply draw its own map after rejecting the commission’s first two proposals. Even worse, the commission didn’t even work as intended.”
“With the stroke of a pen they can gain three seats and eliminate four Republican seats,” said Dave Wasserman, a national elections analyst with the Cook Political Report, who called the proposed lines “an effective gerrymander” by Democrats.
“That’s a pretty big shift,” he added. “In fact, it’s probably the biggest shift in the country.”
Republicans are also sounding the alarm.
State Republican Party Chairman Nick Langworthy said in a statement that the map is a “brazen and outrageous attempt at rigging the election to keep Nancy Pelosi as speaker.”
“Democrats are circumventing the will of the people,” Langworthy said. “For all of their phony protestations about transparency and fairness in elections, what they’re doing is textbook filthy, partisan gerrymandering that is clearly in violation of the New York State Constitution.”
“We are reviewing all of our legal options to protect the voices of millions of New Yorkers,” the party chairman said.
Here’s why this is such a big deal.
The Washington Post reported: “So far, in more than two dozen maps passed around the country, Democrats would net an additional five districts that Joe Biden would have won in 2020, The New York map, which is expected to be voted on this week and signed by Gov. Kathy Hochul (D), would bring that up to eight seats.”
