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The “world’s most accurate economist” predicted former President Donald Trump would win on Election Day and that Republicans would win back control of Congress in a “clean sweep.”
Market Securities Monaco’s chief economist and strategist, Christophe Barraud, also said that after the election, growth in the U.S. would speed up.
“Looking at different metrics such as betting markets, polls, election modelers’ forecasts, financial markets, as of now, the most probable outcomes are: [1] #Trump victory [2] #GOP clean sweep,” he wrote on X.
Since 2012, Barraud has been named by Bloomberg as the best U.S. economic forecaster every year, Fox News reported.
Even though Barraud said the economy would grow, he warned that yields could fall if Vice President Kamala Harris is chosen and Congress is split. This is because the market has already priced in a Republican win. He also said that it would go down.
Barraud told Business Insider that Trump might not be able to cut taxes for businesses and people if he wins and Congress is split down the middle. So, Trump said he would focus on taxes, which could slow down growth around the world.
Barraud says that a Republican sweep of Congress is the most possible outcome.
If Trump gets a majority of Republican votes, he could lower taxes for businesses and people and focus on his domestic plans instead of foreign ones.
He said that it would give the GDP a short-term boost of 2.1% to 2.3% in 2025. Barraud said that Trump’s risk is that if he cuts taxes without a way to pay for them, the debt could grow.
The rate on a 10-year Treasury bond would go from about 4.23% to 4.5% at first under Trump. If the Republicans win, he thinks it will go up to about 5% from there.
‘World’s most accurate economist’ makes bold prediction for 2024 election https://t.co/C8TgIcYiY0
— Fox News (@FoxNews) October 29, 2024
Nate Silver’s most recent prediction is that Trump could win all of the important split states in the 2024 election.
Silver’s research shows that Trump has a 24.4% chance of winning all seven swing states in November. This is the most likely outcome. The forecast also says that Harris has a 15.6% chance of winning all the battleground states.
It also shows that Harris would win the race if she won all the swing states except Arizona and Georgia, where Trump is currently ahead. His model, on the other hand, says that this is only 1.7% likely to happen. On the other hand, it’s 3.4% likely that Harris will win Georgia but not Arizona, and 2.9% likely that the Democrats will win Arizona but not Georgia.
The model shows that there is a 4.6% chance that the Republicans will win every swing state except Nevada, where Harris is currently ahead by a very small amount. In this case, Trump would win the election because the vice president would get 232 electoral college votes.
Silver’s overall prediction shows that Harris is most likely to win when Democrats win between three and five of the key states. That’s how many electoral college votes the vice president would need to win if she only won Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. That’s an 86.2 percent chance of winning overall.
Polls show that Trump is ahead in Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina, while Harris is ahead in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nevada. A tracker from FiveThirtyEight says the former president is ahead by 0.2 points in Pennsylvania, but a tracker from Silver says the state is tied.
The prediction from Silver says that Harris has a 0.6% chance of winning the race if she only wins Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nevada. If she gets Pennsylvania, her chances go up to 98.9 percent. Silver’s model, on the other hand, says that this unlikely event is only 2.9% likely to happen.
In the last two weeks, expectations for the electoral college have changed to show that Trump is more likely to win than Harris. As an example, Silver currently thinks that Trump has a 53.1% chance of getting the Electoral College vote, while Harris only thinks that Trump has a 46.6% chance.
FiveThirtyEight’s prediction has also changed in Trump’s favor. It now says that Trump has a 51% chance of winning the election, while Harris only has a 49% chance. At the same time, RealClearPolitics predicts that Trump will win all four swing states, giving him 312 Electoral College votes to Harris’s 227.
This comes after four national polls came out this month showing Trump ahead of Harris.
Still, the race is still very close. “The race has gone from almost a toss-up to definitely a toss-up,” last week told Newsweek Jon Parker, a senior lecturer in American studies at Keele University in the U.K. He did say, though, that this “does not mean that either campaign is winning or losing.”
Famed polling guru Nate Silver’s ‘gut says Donald Trump’ will win 2024 presidential election pic.twitter.com/ZjofA0EAVM
— Martin Walsh (@MWalshUS) October 24, 2024
