OPINION: This article may contain commentary which reflects the author's opinion.
Former President Donald Trump is facing a tidal wave of legal problems, but so far, they have not seemed to have harmed him politically.
In fact, in recent weeks, as indictments against him pile up, polls show his popularity and support increasing, leaving many analysts to conclude that he’s got a real shot at winning a second term next November — as long as he isn’t convicted on any counts.
“Political wisdom may have once suggested the former president’s bid for a second White House term would be nothing but a pipe dream. But most of us know better by now,” Harry Enten wrote at CNN.com on Sunday.
“Trump is not only in a historically strong position for a nonincumbent to win the Republican nomination, but he is in a better position to win the general election than at any point during the 2020 cycle and almost at any point during the 2016 cycle,” he added.
In the modern era, no candidate with Trump’s current polling position has lost an open presidential primary that did not involve an incumbent. His support in the national primary polls exceeds 50%, surpassing the combined support of all his competitors, Enten noted further, adding:
Three prior candidates in open primaries were pulling in more than half the vote in primary surveys in the second half of the calendar year before the election: Democrat Al Gore and Republican George W. Bush in 2000 and Democrat Hillary Clinton in 2016. Gore remains the only nonincumbent to win every single presidential nominating contest, while Bush and Clinton never lost their national polling advantage in their primaries.
Today, Trump’s closest primary competitor, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, has fallen below 20% nationally. No other contender is at or above 10%. This makes the margin between Trump and the rest of the field north of 30 points on average.
“Trump is leading not just nationally but in the early-voting states as well. He’s up by double digits in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina,” Enten added.
What is arguably more remarkable, he noted, is that despite a majority of Americans agreeing that Trump’s two indictments were warranted, he continues to be a strong contender in a potential rematch with President Joe Biden. Enten then points to a recent poll from Marquette University Law School showing Biden and Trump tied percentage-wise, “with a statistically insignificant few more respondents favoring Trump.”
Other surveys from reputable sources like ABC News and the Washington Post have shown Trump ahead of Biden, Enten notes.
“All that being said, the 2024 election will probably come down to a few swing states,” Enten suggested, adding that so far, polling in those states is limited.
However, according to polling data from Echelon Insights early last month, Trump was doing well against Biden in those swing states.
The survey “found that 48% of respondents in swing states would probably or definitely vote for Trump, compared to just 41% for Biden. Though Biden is narrowly favored overall by likely voters, with 43% favoring him compared to 42% for Trump, the Republican front-runner could win 270 Electoral College votes by seizing the swing states,” the Washington Examiner reported.
Additionally, when considering the challenger Cornel West from the Green Party, Biden’s grip on the overall vote is also not guaranteed. The poll reveals that West has the potential to attract a substantial portion of Biden’s liberal voters, potentially enough to tilt the majority of the ballot in favor of Trump.
Enten concluded: “The good news for Democrats is that general election polling, unlike primary polling, is not predictive at this point. Things can most certainly change. But for now, the chance that Trump is president in less than two years time is a very real possibility.”
