OPINION: This article contains commentary which reflects the author's opinion
A prominent Democrat strategist is warning that his party “could endure a blowout defeat’ in the 2022 midterm elections.
Douglas Schoen, a political consultant who served as an adviser to President Bill Clinton and to the 2020 presidential campaign of Michael Bloomberg, wrote an op-ed for The Hill warning that Democrats in both the House and Senate could lose big time.
“The marked decline in support for President Biden and his administration nationally and in key swing states indicates that the Democratic Party could endure a blowout defeat in the 2022 midterm elections,” Schoen wrote.
“Moreover, Biden is in a significantly weaker position now than both of his most recent Democratic predecessors — Bill Clinton and Barack Obama — at this point in their presidencies, which suggests that Democrats could suffer even more substantial losses in 2022 than the party did in 1994 and 2010,” he added.
Shoen noted that the polls are bad news for Biden.
“For reference, at the same point in Obama’s first term, Obama’s net approval rating was 19 points higher than Biden’s is right now. At the time, a majority of voters (52 percent) approved of Obama, while 41 percent disapproved, according to a Gallup survey released on Sept. 13, 2009,” he wrote.
“That being said, in the 2010 midterm elections, Democrats lost a net of 64 House seats and Republicans gained six seats in the Senate. Likewise, on Sept. 12, 1993, Clinton’s approval rating was recorded at 47 percent approve and 42 percent disapprove by a Gallup survey. To put that in context, Clinton’s net approval rating was 13 points higher than Biden’s is at the same point in his presidency,” he added.
He added: “Yet in the 1994 midterms, Democrats lost a net of 52 House seats and Republicans picked up eight seats in the Senate.”
Republicans are now “the early favorites,” to retake control of the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2022 midterm elections.
Cook Political Report Senior Editor David Wasserman told NBC News that Republicans are poised to retake the lower chamber for a variety of reasons.
“Based on all factors, you’d have to consider Republicans the early favorites for the House majority in 2022,” Wasserman said.
“But as we found out in 2020, surprises can happen, and it’s not a done deal,” he added. “Democrats’ best hope is that Biden’s approval rating stays above 50% and that Republicans have a tougher time turning out their voters without Trump on the ballot.”
Last month, a top House Democrat warned that the Republican Party is in a prime position to take back House in next year’s midterm elections.
Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairman Sean Patrick, who serves as a congressman from New York, says Democrats would lose their House majority if the midterms were held today.
Speaking with Politico, Tim Persico, executive director of the Maloney-led DCCC, shared data with incumbents showing that several House Democrats are at risk of losing their seats to Republican challengers.
Democrats are facing serious headwinds going into next year.
Three-quarters of senior Capitol Hill aides think Republicans are going to win back control of the House of Representatives in the 2021 midterm elections.
Punchbowl News surveyed several senior Capitol Hill aides and reported that a whopping 73 percent think Republicans will take the speaker’s gavel from Democrat Rep. Nancy Pelosi next November.
Republicans need a net gain of 5 seats to regain the House majority in the midterms next November.
And the once-in-a-decade redistricting process – pegged to the 2020 census – is expected to generally favor Republicans over Democrats.