OPINION: This article contains commentary which reflects the author's opinion
Democrats are preparing to lose control of the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2022 midterm elections.
Fox News congressional correspondent Aishah Hasnie reported on Monday that Democrats are very worried that the fallout from the Biden administration’s handling of Afghanistan will cost them control of the lower chamber.
Republicans are now “the early favorites” to retake control of the House in the midterms.
Cook Political Report Senior Editor David Wasserman told NBC News that Republicans are poised to retake the lower chamber for a variety of reasons.
“Based on all factors, you’d have to consider Republicans the early favorites for the House majority in 2022,” Wasserman said.
“But as we found out in 2020, surprises can happen, and it’s not a done deal,” he added. “Democrats’ best hope is that Biden’s approval rating stays above 50% and that Republicans have a tougher time turning out their voters without Trump on the ballot.”
Last month, a top House Democrat warned that the Republican Party is in a prime position to take back House in next year’s midterm elections.
Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairman Sean Patrick, who serves as a congressman from New York, says Democrats would lose their House majority if the midterms were held today.
Speaking with Politico, Tim Persico, executive director of the Maloney-led DCCC, shared data with incumbents showing that several House Democrats are at risk of losing their seats to Republican challengers.
“We are not afraid of this data … We’re not trying to hide this,” Persico told Politico. “If [Democrats] use it, we’re going to hold the House. That’s what this data tells us, but we gotta get in action.”
“The point is, to make sure that we’re all on the same page, that we understand the stakes. Here’s the good news: Everything we are doing and everything we’ve talked about doing is incredibly popular,” he added.
Democrats are facing serious headwinds going into next year.
Three-quarters of senior Capitol Hill aides think Republicans are going to win back control of the House of Representatives in the 2021 midterm elections.
Punchbowl News surveyed several senior Capitol Hill aides and reported that a whopping 73 percent think Republicans will take the speaker’s gavel from Democrat Rep. Nancy Pelosi next November.
Republicans need a net gain of 5 seats to regain the House majority in the midterms next November.
Seventy-five percent of Hill staffers believe Democrats will retain the Senate majority.
This is up five percent from the last survey. Democrats currently have a 50-50 split with Republicans in Congress’s upper chamber.
Fifty-eight percent of Hill staffers also believe that enhanced unemployment benefits are hurting the labor market, while only 24 percent think it is helping Americans obtain employment.
The GOP has another big advantage now: they are raking in historical amounts of money.
Republicans set a fundraising record for the third month in a row and now have $42.1 million in cash on hand with zero dollars in debt.
And the NRCC says it ended May with more than $42.1 million cash on hand – more than double the amount it had in its coffers at this point in the last election cycle – and zero debt.
House Republicans also have history on their side as they aim to regain the chamber.
The party that controls the White House, which is currently the Democrats, on average loses roughly 25 House seats in the midterm elections.
And the once-in-a-decade redistricting process – pegged to the 2020 census – is expected to generally favor Republicans over Democrats.