OPINION: This article may contain commentary which reflects the author's opinion.
Former President Donald Trump has been rising in the polls for months now when pitted against his most likely Democratic opponent, President Joe Biden, but a new 2024 election forecast is a bombshell for his campaign.
A new analysis from Decision Desk HQ, which cited polls from across the country, predicted that Trump would win more than 300 electoral votes, mostly by flipping a number of states he lost in 2020.
The forecasters believe Trump “will win a total of 312 Electoral votes in November, the biggest number a GOP candidate has received since George H. W. Bush’s 1988 victory when he received 426 votes,” Newsweek reported.
The outlet added:
The estimates are the latest worrying sign for Biden as he seeks re-election. The president has long faced concerns about his low approval ratings, as well as voters believing the 81-year-old is too old for a second term in office. Former President Trump himself is also facing the prospect of being a convicted felon by November as he faces 91 criminal charges across four trials, with polls suggesting this could damage his bid to re-enter the White House.
The Decision Desk HQ analysis also noted that Trump is currently on pace to win several swing states, including Arizona and Nevada. Also, as of now, he looks likely to win the “blue wall” of swing states — Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, which he won in 2016.
“Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania all went to Trump by less than a point in 2016 and then flipped back in favor of Biden by very narrow margins in 2020. They proved decisive in both of those elections,” Liberty Vittert, a statistician and Professor of the Practice of Data Science at the Olin Business School at Washington University in St. Louis, said in a Decision Desk HQ video, Newsweek noted.
“Had Hillary Clinton held the states in 2016, she would have defeated Trump, and had Biden failed to flip these back in 2020, Trump would be in a second term right now.”
Newsweek added: “The 312 electoral votes Trump is predicted to win would be more than the 306 Biden achieved in 2020, as well as the 304 Trump was awarded during his 2016 election victory over Clinton. The largest-ever presidential victory in terms of electoral votes was achieved by Ronald Reagan in 1984, who won 525 out of the possible 538 electoral votes after winning all but one of the 50 states in a resounding victory over Walter Mondale.”
Following his steamrolling of Nikki Haley in Saturday’s South Carolina primary, Trump said he isn’t really focused on her anymore.
Trump told Fox News that he’s not sure Haley is “even really in the race” at this point, adding he is now hyper-focused on beating Biden in the fall.
“I was honored that I received the largest vote in the history of the state — I’m with Senator Lindsey Graham right now, and he just told me we received the largest vote by double — we beat the last record,” Trump told the network. “So that’s a great compliment to all of the people and to making America great again.”
Asked if he thought Haley should now drop out of the race, Trump said he’s “really not thinking about that… I’m not thinking about it.”
“I’m really thinking about we have to beat Joe Biden,” told the outlet. “I don’t know if she’s in the race at all because, you know, I have set records in every single state. I’m not sure that she’s really in the race.”
Trump secured another 44 delegates ahead of the RNC’s nominating convention this summer, CNN reported.
Haley announced Saturday evening that, despite her resounding loss, she will remain in the race.
“I said earlier this week that no matter what happens in South Carolina, I would continue to run… I’m a woman of my word. I’m not giving up this fight when a majority of Americans disapprove of both Donald Trump and Joe Biden,” she said.
“40% is not some tiny group,” Haley continued. “There are huge numbers of voters in our Republican primary [who said] they want an alternative…I said earlier this week that no matter what happens in South Carolina, I would continue to run for president. I’m a woman of my word.”
